Stat Attack

ELO League Table Projection

This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL Sky Bet Championship

Final Points Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.

Final League Outcome Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club PromotionPlay-offsMidtableRelegation
Coventry CityCoventry City94.45% 5.55%
MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough57.14% 42.75% 0.11%
Ipswich TownIpswich Town32.80% 65.76% 1.44%
MillwallMillwall14.06% 82.33% 3.61%
Hull CityHull City0.80% 58.34% 40.86%
WrexhamWrexham0.47% 43.69% 55.84%
SouthamptonSouthampton0.25% 40.32% 59.43%
Sheffield UnitedSheffield United0.01% 15.67% 84.31% 0.01%
Derby CountyDerby County0.01% 11.80% 88.16% 0.03%
Birmingham CityBirmingham 12.13% 87.85% 0.02%
WatfordWatford 6.87% 93.05% 0.08%
Bristol CityBristol City0.01% 6.12% 93.83% 0.04%
Swansea CitySwansea City 3.15% 96.57% 0.28%
Stoke CityStoke City 1.92% 97.68% 0.40%
Preston North EndPreston North End 1.49% 98.03% 0.48%
Queens Park RangersQ.P.R. 0.55% 97.98% 1.47%
Norwich CityNorwich City 1.38% 96.99% 1.63%
Charlton AthleticCharlton Athletic 0.16% 95.05% 4.79%
PortsmouthPortsmouth 0.02% 82.18% 17.80%
Leicester CityLeicester City 76.58% 23.42%
West Bromwich AlbionWest Bromwich Albion 61.10% 38.90%
Blackburn RoversBlackburn 56.08% 43.92%
Oxford UnitedOxford United 33.27% 66.73%
Sheffield WednesdaySheffield Wednesday 100.00%

Final League Position Projection

A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club 123456789101112131415161718192021222324
Club 123456789101112131415161718192021222324
Coventry CityCoventry City77.0 17.5 4.6 0.8 0.2
MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough14.2 42.9 27.8 11.9 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ipswich TownIpswich Town6.6 26.2 33.9 22.1 7.5 2.3 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.1
MillwallMillwall2.1 12.0 26.2 36.0 14.8 5.4 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hull CityHull City0.1 0.7 3.5 11.5 23.3 20.1 14.5 10.3 6.6 4.1 2.8 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
WrexhamWrexham0.0 0.4 2.1 6.9 17.2 17.5 15.0 11.5 9.0 6.8 4.7 3.7 2.2 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
SouthamptonSouthampton 0.3 1.5 6.3 15.1 17.5 14.9 12.2 8.7 7.1 5.1 3.6 3.1 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Sheffield UnitedSheffield United 0.0 0.1 1.1 5.4 9.1 11.3 11.7 11.4 10.0 8.8 8.0 6.1 5.5 4.5 2.8 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Derby CountyDerby County 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.8 6.7 9.2 10.7 11.0 10.8 10.2 9.1 8.4 6.6 5.0 3.5 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Birmingham CityBirmingham 0.1 1.0 4.0 7.0 8.7 10.6 11.4 10.9 9.9 8.9 7.5 6.6 5.0 3.7 2.4 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
WatfordWatford 0.1 0.5 2.2 4.1 6.4 7.6 8.6 9.3 10.0 9.6 9.5 9.0 7.3 6.1 4.5 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Bristol CityBristol City 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.0 5.8 7.5 9.0 9.5 9.4 9.7 9.1 8.6 8.6 6.0 4.7 3.1 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.0
Swansea CitySwansea City 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.5 4.3 6.1 7.9 8.5 9.1 10.4 9.5 9.3 8.7 7.4 5.6 3.5 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.0
Stoke CityStoke City 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.6 4.1 5.5 6.5 8.0 8.5 9.1 9.8 9.8 9.8 8.7 6.4 4.7 2.9 1.4 0.3 0.1
Preston North EndPreston North End 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.4 4.4 5.8 7.3 7.9 9.5 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.3 8.2 5.3 3.4 1.9 0.4 0.1
Queens Park RangersQ.P.R. 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.8 3.7 5.3 6.6 7.8 8.8 10.1 11.5 11.9 10.5 8.1 5.3 3.1 1.3 0.2
Norwich CityNorwich City 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.4 3.5 4.6 5.3 6.9 6.9 8.7 9.1 10.7 10.3 9.5 8.3 6.0 3.3 1.4 0.3
Charlton AthleticCharlton Athletic 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.9 3.0 4.0 5.2 6.0 8.2 9.8 11.9 13.0 13.2 9.8 6.9 3.8 1.0
PortsmouthPortsmouth 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.4 3.1 4.7 6.1 8.3 10.8 13.1 15.2 14.3 11.0 6.8
Leicester CityLeicester City 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.0 5.0 7.1 10.4 13.9 16.1 16.3 14.2 9.2
West Bromwich AlbionWest Bromwich Albion 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.4 4.0 7.3 10.3 14.7 18.9 20.8 18.1
Blackburn RoversBlackburn 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 2.1 3.3 6.0 9.9 13.5 18.4 22.5 21.4
Oxford UnitedOxford United 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.9 8.8 14.0 23.9 42.8
Sheffield WednesdaySheffield Wednesday 100.0

Final League Table Projection

A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores. The projected points range shows the likely range of points for each team – for example, Coventry City have a 90% chance of finishing between 82 and 97 points, a 50% chance of finishing between 87 and 93 points (this is the interquartile range), with their median expected points being 90.

Pos. Team Actual Projected Projected Points Range
P W D L Pts To Play Win % Draw % Loss % 90% range 50% range Exp. Pts
1 Coventry City Coventry City 36 22 8 6 74 10 43.8% 26.8% 29.4% 82 - 97 87 - 93 90
2 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 36 20 9 7 69 10 41.0% 26.7% 32.3% 77 - 91 81 - 87 84
3 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town 35 18 10 7 64 11 42.8% 26.4% 30.7% 73 - 89 78 - 84 81
4 Millwall Millwall 36 19 8 9 65 10 37.9% 26.3% 35.7% 72 - 86 76 - 82 79
5 Hull City Hull City 36 18 6 12 60 10 31.9% 26.6% 41.5% 65 - 80 69 - 75 72
6 Wrexham Wrexham 35 15 12 8 57 11 31.3% 26.5% 42.2% 63 - 78 67 - 73 70
7 Southampton Southampton 35 14 11 10 53 11 40.5% 26.9% 32.6% 61 - 77 66 - 73 69
8 Sheffield United Sheffield United 36 15 4 17 49 10 47.6% 25.7% 26.6% 58 - 73 63 - 69 66
9 Derby County Derby County 36 15 9 12 54 10 29.6% 26.1% 44.4% 59 - 73 62 - 68 65
10 Birmingham City Birmingham 36 13 10 13 49 10 45.8% 26.3% 27.9% 58 - 73 62 - 68 65
11 Watford Watford 35 13 12 10 51 11 30.0% 26.8% 43.2% 57 - 72 61 - 67 64
12 Bristol City Bristol City 36 14 8 14 50 10 36.0% 27.0% 37.0% 56 - 71 60 - 67 63
13 Swansea City Swansea City 36 14 7 15 49 10 34.3% 26.8% 38.9% 55 - 70 59 - 65 62
14 Stoke City Stoke City 36 13 8 15 47 10 37.0% 27.1% 36.0% 53 - 68 58 - 64 61
15 Preston North End Preston North End 36 12 13 11 49 10 30.4% 26.7% 42.9% 54 - 68 58 - 64 61
16 Queens Park Rangers Q.P.R. 36 13 8 15 47 10 32.9% 26.6% 40.5% 53 - 67 56 - 62 59
17 Norwich City Norwich City 35 13 6 16 45 11 33.8% 26.8% 39.5% 51 - 67 56 - 62 59
18 Charlton Athletic Charlton Athletic 36 11 11 14 44 10 35.1% 26.8% 38.1% 50 - 65 54 - 60 57
19 Portsmouth Portsmouth 35 10 10 15 40 11 33.9% 26.3% 39.8% 46 - 62 51 - 57 54
20 Leicester City Leicester City 36 10 11 15 35 10 49.5% 25.4% 25.1% 45 - 60 49 - 56 53
21 West Bromwich Albion West Bromwich Albion 36 9 9 18 36 10 41.3% 26.8% 32.0% 44 - 59 48 - 54 51
22 Blackburn Rovers Blackburn 36 10 9 17 39 10 29.9% 26.6% 43.5% 44 - 58 48 - 54 50
23 Oxford United Oxford United 36 8 11 17 35 10 33.7% 26.8% 39.6% 41 - 55 45 - 51 48
24 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 36 1 8 27 -7 10 32.0% 26.6% 41.4% -2 - 13 2 - 8 5