Stat Attack

ELO League Table Projection

This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL Sky Bet League One

Final Points Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.

Final League Outcome Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club PromotionPlay-offsMidtableRelegation
Cardiff CityCardiff City93.64% 6.35% 0.01%
Lincoln CityLincoln City93.72% 6.28%
Stockport CountyStockport County6.32% 83.51% 10.17%
Bolton WanderersBolton4.73% 85.32% 9.95%
Bradford CityBradford1.13% 68.15% 30.72%
StevenageStevenage0.21% 32.55% 67.24%
ReadingReading0.11% 30.43% 69.46%
Huddersfield TownHuddersfield Town0.06% 20.79% 79.15%
Wycombe WanderersWycombe Wanderers0.07% 19.41% 80.52%
Plymouth ArgylePlymouth Argyle 19.32% 80.64% 0.04%
Luton TownLuton Town0.01% 15.32% 84.61% 0.06%
BarnsleyBarnsley 11.02% 88.52% 0.46%
AFC WimbledonWimbledon 0.67% 95.06% 4.27%
Peterborough UnitedPeterborough United 0.38% 95.70% 3.92%
Wigan AthleticWigan Athletic 0.17% 85.62% 14.21%
Leyton OrientLeyton Orient 0.04% 83.82% 16.14%
Doncaster RoversDoncaster Rovers 0.10% 80.69% 19.21%
Mansfield TownMansfield Town 0.18% 83.12% 16.70%
BlackpoolBlackpool 82.04% 17.96%
Exeter CityExeter City 0.01% 80.57% 19.42%
Burton AlbionBurton Albion 65.35% 34.65%
Rotherham UnitedRotherham United 30.48% 69.52%
Northampton TownNorthampton Town 10.78% 89.22%
Port ValePort Vale 5.78% 94.22%

Final League Position Projection

A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club 123456789101112131415161718192021222324
Club 123456789101112131415161718192021222324
Cardiff CityCardiff City48.4 45.2 5.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lincoln CityLincoln City50.0 43.7 5.2 1.0 0.1 0.0
Stockport CountyStockport County0.9 5.4 36.5 26.4 13.8 6.7 4.3 2.4 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Bolton WanderersBolton0.6 4.1 32.6 27.4 16.3 9.1 4.9 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Bradford CityBradford0.1 1.1 12.1 19.1 21.4 15.6 11.7 7.7 5.0 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
StevenageStevenage 0.2 3.2 6.8 10.6 12.0 12.7 12.4 10.9 9.1 8.1 6.3 3.7 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
ReadingReading0.0 0.1 1.8 5.1 10.2 13.4 13.1 12.5 11.6 9.8 8.6 6.1 3.8 2.1 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Huddersfield TownHuddersfield Town 0.1 0.9 3.1 7.2 9.7 11.6 12.7 13.0 12.3 11.1 8.1 5.0 2.9 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wycombe WanderersWycombe Wanderers 0.1 0.8 3.0 5.9 9.6 11.2 13.4 13.2 13.0 10.7 8.6 5.2 2.9 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Plymouth ArgylePlymouth Argyle 0.8 3.3 6.2 9.1 11.2 11.3 12.4 11.5 10.7 8.5 5.9 4.0 2.3 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Luton TownLuton Town 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.6 8.3 10.2 12.2 12.4 12.9 10.9 8.9 6.7 4.2 2.7 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
BarnsleyBarnsley 0.5 1.7 3.5 5.4 6.6 8.1 9.5 10.4 11.7 12.0 9.6 6.6 5.2 3.6 2.3 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
AFC WimbledonWimbledon 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.6 2.6 3.8 5.4 7.9 10.9 11.6 11.5 10.7 9.7 7.5 6.4 4.8 2.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
Peterborough UnitedPeterborough United 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.1 3.9 5.7 8.6 11.2 12.9 11.8 11.2 9.1 7.7 5.8 4.0 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.0
Wigan AthleticWigan Athletic 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.7 3.1 4.8 7.1 8.8 10.7 9.7 10.2 10.0 9.6 8.3 6.7 4.8 2.2 0.6
Leyton OrientLeyton Orient 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.8 4.1 6.9 8.4 9.1 9.8 10.5 10.2 10.2 9.1 7.2 5.8 2.5 0.6
Doncaster RoversDoncaster Rovers 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.0 3.4 5.4 7.3 8.4 10.1 10.2 11.1 10.6 9.8 8.5 6.3 3.5 0.9
Mansfield TownMansfield Town 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.6 3.9 6.0 7.4 8.6 9.5 10.0 11.3 10.4 10.3 8.5 5.2 2.6 0.5
BlackpoolBlackpool 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.3 5.2 7.5 9.2 10.7 10.9 11.2 10.1 10.2 8.6 6.2 2.4 0.8
Exeter CityExeter City 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.8 2.9 4.5 6.4 8.5 9.9 10.8 10.5 12.0 11.9 10.1 6.8 2.2 0.3
Burton AlbionBurton Albion 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.0 3.9 5.3 6.8 8.9 10.2 12.4 13.6 14.9 12.2 6.1 1.4
Rotherham UnitedRotherham United 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.6 2.2 3.1 5.1 6.7 10.1 15.8 23.1 20.0 10.6
Northampton TownNorthampton Town 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.6 4.7 9.1 18.1 38.1 23.9
Port ValePort Vale 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.4 4.6 9.3 20.0 60.3

Final League Table Projection

A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores. The projected points range shows the likely range of points for each team – for example, Cardiff City have a 90% chance of finishing between 82 and 98 points, a 50% chance of finishing between 86 and 93 points (this is the interquartile range), with their median expected points being 90.

Pos. Team Actual Projected Projected Points Range
P W D L Pts To Play Win % Draw % Loss % 90% range 50% range Exp. Pts
1 Cardiff City Cardiff City 35 22 6 7 72 11 45.3% 25.8% 28.8% 82 - 98 86 - 93 90
2 Lincoln City Lincoln City 35 22 8 5 74 11 38.8% 27.0% 34.1% 82 - 98 86 - 93 90
3 Stockport County Stockport County 34 16 8 10 56 12 53.6% 23.9% 22.5% 70 - 86 75 - 82 78
4 Bolton Wanderers Bolton 36 17 13 6 64 10 36.0% 26.6% 37.4% 70 - 85 74 - 81 77
5 Bradford City Bradford 35 18 7 10 61 11 31.7% 26.7% 41.6% 67 - 82 71 - 78 74
6 Stevenage Stevenage 34 15 9 10 54 12 34.6% 26.9% 38.5% 62 - 78 66 - 73 70
7 Reading Reading 35 14 12 9 54 11 36.9% 26.8% 36.4% 61 - 77 66 - 72 69
8 Huddersfield Town Huddersfield Town 36 16 7 13 55 10 33.5% 26.7% 39.8% 61 - 75 65 - 71 68
9 Wycombe Wanderers Wycombe Wanderers 36 14 11 11 53 10 39.0% 26.1% 35.0% 60 - 75 64 - 70 67
10 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 35 15 4 16 49 11 46.7% 26.0% 27.3% 59 - 75 64 - 71 67
11 Luton Town Luton Town 35 13 8 14 47 11 51.0% 24.8% 24.2% 59 - 74 63 - 70 67
12 Barnsley Barnsley 33 13 8 12 47 13 37.4% 26.5% 36.2% 56 - 74 61 - 69 65
13 AFC Wimbledon Wimbledon 34 13 7 14 46 12 27.8% 25.7% 46.5% 52 - 67 56 - 62 59
14 Peterborough United Peterborough United 35 14 4 17 46 11 30.3% 25.2% 44.5% 52 - 66 56 - 62 59
15 Wigan Athletic Wigan Athletic 34 9 11 14 38 12 41.8% 26.3% 31.9% 48 - 64 53 - 60 56
16 Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 34 10 6 18 36 12 45.9% 26.1% 27.9% 47 - 64 52 - 59 56
17 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 34 11 6 17 39 12 37.1% 26.8% 36.2% 47 - 64 52 - 59 56
18 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 33 10 11 12 41 13 27.9% 25.8% 46.3% 47 - 64 52 - 59 55
19 Blackpool Blackpool 35 10 8 17 38 11 43.6% 26.0% 30.4% 47 - 63 52 - 59 55
20 Exeter City Exeter City 35 11 9 15 42 11 29.4% 25.7% 44.9% 47 - 62 51 - 58 54
21 Burton Albion Burton Albion 36 10 10 16 40 10 33.6% 26.6% 39.8% 46 - 60 50 - 56 53
22 Rotherham United Rotherham United 35 9 8 18 35 11 32.2% 26.5% 41.3% 41 - 57 45 - 52 48
23 Northampton Town Northampton Town 36 9 8 19 35 10 26.5% 25.6% 47.8% 39 - 53 43 - 48 45
24 Port Vale Port Vale 32 6 9 17 27 14 27.7% 25.3% 47.0% 34 - 51 39 - 46 42