Stat Attack

ELO League Table Projection

This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

Pitching In Isthmian League Premier Division

Final Points Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.

Final League Outcome Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club ChampionsPlay-offsMidtableRelegation
Folkestone InvictaFolkestone Invicta98.34% 1.66%
AveleyAveley1.18% 95.43% 3.39%
Brentwood TownBrentwood Town0.19% 81.19% 18.62%
Chatham TownChatham Town0.18% 77.99% 21.83%
Billericay TownBillericay0.09% 75.60% 24.31%
DartfordDartford0.02% 40.80% 59.18%
Cray WanderersCray Wanderers 12.87% 87.13%
Burgess Hill TownBurgess Hill Town 4.24% 95.76%
St. Albans CitySt. Albans 2.59% 97.41%
RamsgateRamsgate 2.47% 97.53%
WhitehawkWhitehawk 2.96% 97.03% 0.01%
Chichester CityChichester City 1.37% 98.56% 0.07%
Dulwich HamletDulwich 0.66% 99.32% 0.02%
CheshuntCheshunt 0.16% 98.99% 0.85%
LewesLewes 0.01% 95.33% 4.66%
Wingate and FinchleyWingate & F. 84.39% 15.61%
Cray Valley Paper MillsCray Valley 72.83% 27.17%
Hashtag UnitedHashtag United 68.62% 31.38%
Carshalton AthleticCarshalton 58.42% 41.58%
Welling UnitedWelling 13.90% 86.10%
Potters Bar TownPotters Bar Town 6.62% 93.38%
Canvey IslandCanvey Island 0.83% 99.17%

Final League Position Projection

A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club 12345678910111213141516171819202122
Club 12345678910111213141516171819202122
Folkestone InvictaFolkestone Invicta98.3 1.6 0.1 0.0
AveleyAveley1.2 47.8 25.1 14.8 7.8 2.5 0.7 0.1
Brentwood TownBrentwood Town0.2 15.0 22.8 24.2 19.3 11.8 4.4 1.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
Chatham TownChatham Town0.2 20.0 21.8 19.3 16.8 11.4 5.9 2.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Billericay TownBillericay0.1 12.0 20.0 23.0 20.6 11.7 6.4 3.5 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
DartfordDartford0.0 3.1 7.8 11.6 18.3 22.4 14.7 9.1 5.6 3.4 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cray WanderersCray Wanderers 0.3 1.4 3.7 7.5 14.5 20.0 17.2 13.3 8.9 6.6 3.9 2.0 0.6 0.2
Burgess Hill TownBurgess Hill Town 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.6 5.7 10.0 13.6 14.4 13.8 13.0 10.3 8.2 4.7 1.7 0.3 0.0
St. Albans CitySt. Albans 0.2 0.5 2.0 5.2 10.9 14.1 15.2 15.4 13.1 10.0 7.5 4.1 1.5 0.3 0.1
RamsgateRamsgate 0.2 0.6 1.7 5.0 8.7 11.6 12.8 13.9 14.2 12.7 9.9 5.7 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
WhitehawkWhitehawk 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 4.3 7.5 9.1 11.4 12.6 13.1 12.8 11.2 8.5 4.4 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Chichester CityChichester City 0.1 0.3 1.0 3.4 6.2 8.4 11.0 11.8 13.2 13.9 13.2 9.7 5.0 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.1
Dulwich HamletDulwich 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.6 6.2 8.7 11.2 13.1 16.3 17.0 12.1 6.1 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
CheshuntCheshunt 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 3.6 5.5 7.5 10.8 15.0 20.4 16.2 9.8 4.4 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0
LewesLewes 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.2 4.4 8.2 15.8 22.3 20.0 12.8 7.3 3.6 0.9 0.2
Wingate and FinchleyWingate & F. 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.2 4.1 8.4 16.1 19.1 18.6 13.9 10.4 4.3 0.9 0.1
Cray Valley Paper MillsCray Valley 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.5 10.5 16.3 18.9 19.5 16.5 8.6 1.9 0.2
Hashtag UnitedHashtag United 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 3.4 7.7 14.3 19.6 22.4 20.4 8.9 2.0 0.2
Carshalton AthleticCarshalton 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.8 5.0 10.8 17.5 22.7 23.1 13.4 4.3 0.8
Welling UnitedWelling 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.8 7.3 14.0 32.1 28.8 11.3
Potters Bar TownPotters Bar Town 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.8 3.8 9.5 25.6 40.1 18.2
Canvey IslandCanvey Island 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.9 6.3 21.8 69.2

Final League Table Projection

A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores. The projected points range shows the likely range of points for each team – for example, Folkestone Invicta have a 90% chance of finishing between 82 and 96 points, a 50% chance of finishing between 86 and 92 points (this is the interquartile range), with their median expected points being 89.

Pos. Team Actual Projected Projected Points Range
P W D L Pts To Play Win % Draw % Loss % 90% range 50% range Exp. Pts
1 Folkestone Invicta Folkestone Invicta 33 24 5 4 77 9 35.0% 26.6% 38.5% 82 - 96 86 - 92 89
2 Aveley Aveley 33 18 11 4 65 9 33.3% 26.4% 40.2% 70 - 83 74 - 79 76
3 Brentwood Town Brentwood Town 33 19 4 10 61 9 35.9% 26.9% 37.2% 66 - 80 70 - 76 73
4 Chatham Town Chatham Town 31 16 6 9 54 11 47.3% 25.5% 27.2% 64 - 80 69 - 76 73
5 Billericay Town Billericay 32 15 9 8 54 10 51.3% 24.2% 24.4% 64 - 79 69 - 75 72
6 Dartford Dartford 31 14 9 8 51 11 43.3% 26.2% 30.4% 60 - 76 65 - 72 68
7 Cray Wanderers Cray Wanderers 33 12 16 5 52 9 38.1% 26.5% 35.4% 58 - 72 62 - 68 65
8 Burgess Hill Town Burgess Hill Town 32 14 7 11 49 10 33.1% 26.6% 40.3% 54 - 69 59 - 65 61
9 St. Albans City St. Albans 33 13 7 13 46 9 46.0% 25.8% 28.2% 54 - 68 58 - 64 61
10 Ramsgate Ramsgate 32 12 12 8 48 10 31.8% 26.8% 41.4% 53 - 68 57 - 63 60
11 Whitehawk Whitehawk 30 12 9 9 45 12 32.4% 26.4% 41.2% 52 - 68 56 - 63 60
12 Chichester City Chichester City 31 11 9 11 42 11 42.6% 26.5% 30.9% 51 - 67 56 - 62 59
13 Dulwich Hamlet Dulwich 32 12 10 10 46 10 30.4% 26.1% 43.5% 51 - 65 55 - 61 58
14 Cheshunt Cheshunt 31 9 13 9 40 11 33.8% 26.8% 39.4% 47 - 62 51 - 57 54
15 Lewes Lewes 32 11 5 16 38 10 34.5% 26.4% 39.1% 44 - 58 48 - 54 51
16 Wingate and Finchley Wingate & F. 31 9 6 16 33 11 35.6% 27.0% 37.4% 40 - 56 44 - 51 48
17 Cray Valley Paper Mills Cray Valley 32 8 7 17 31 10 41.2% 26.8% 32.0% 39 - 54 43 - 49 46
18 Hashtag United Hashtag United 33 8 8 17 32 9 40.2% 26.4% 33.4% 39 - 52 42 - 48 45
19 Carshalton Athletic Carshalton 33 6 11 16 29 9 45.8% 26.1% 28.1% 37 - 51 41 - 47 44
20 Welling United Welling 31 8 1 22 25 11 32.1% 26.7% 41.2% 31 - 47 35 - 42 38
21 Potters Bar Town Potters Bar Town 32 8 2 22 26 10 27.8% 26.4% 45.9% 30 - 45 34 - 40 37
22 Canvey Island Canvey Island 31 5 7 19 22 11 22.6% 23.8% 53.6% 26 - 39 29 - 35 32