Stat Attack

ELO League Table Projection

This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

Enterprise National League

Final Points Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.

Final League Outcome Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club ChampionsPlay-offsMidtableRelegation
York CityYork City62.74% 37.26%
RochdaleRochdale36.98% 63.02%
Carlisle UnitedCarlisle United0.28% 99.67% 0.05%
Boreham WoodBoreham Wood 96.37% 3.63%
Scunthorpe UnitedScunthorpe United 91.75% 8.25%
Forest Green RoversForest Green 95.24% 4.76%
Southend UnitedSouthend United 87.82% 12.18%
Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool United 16.98% 83.02%
FC Halifax TownFC Halifax Town 7.37% 92.63%
TamworthTamworth 1.09% 98.41% 0.50%
WokingWoking 1.62% 96.54% 1.84%
Solihull MoorsSolihull Moors 0.61% 98.57% 0.82%
WealdstoneWealdstone 0.73% 95.63% 3.64%
Boston UnitedBoston Utd 0.17% 98.46% 1.37%
Aldershot TownAldershot 0.16% 97.40% 2.44%
AltrinchamAltrincham 0.06% 95.40% 4.54%
Yeovil TownYeovil Town 0.02% 90.04% 9.94%
Brackley TownBrackley 0.04% 87.54% 12.42%
EastleighEastleigh 0.01% 82.84% 17.15%
Sutton UnitedSutton United 0.01% 82.73% 17.26%
Braintree TownBraintree 44.12% 55.88%
GatesheadGateshead 13.39% 86.61%
MorecambeMorecambe 11.78% 88.22%
Truro CityTruro 2.63% 97.37%

Final League Position Projection

A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club 123456789101112131415161718192021222324
Club 123456789101112131415161718192021222324
York CityYork City62.7 36.0 1.2 0.1
RochdaleRochdale37.0 59.6 3.3 0.1 0.0
Carlisle UnitedCarlisle United0.3 4.0 68.0 17.7 6.6 2.6 0.9 0.1
Boreham WoodBoreham Wood 0.2 10.0 26.5 24.7 20.9 14.1 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Scunthorpe UnitedScunthorpe United 0.1 6.2 19.0 22.1 24.0 20.4 6.2 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Forest Green RoversForest Green 0.0 4.8 19.5 25.2 25.2 20.5 4.0 0.7 0.1
Southend UnitedSouthend United 0.1 6.5 16.5 19.3 21.5 24.0 7.9 2.8 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool United 0.0 0.6 1.6 3.6 11.1 33.3 22.1 11.7 7.1 4.0 2.3 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
FC Halifax TownFC Halifax Town 0.1 0.4 1.6 5.4 22.9 25.3 17.9 11.2 6.9 4.1 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
TamworthTamworth 0.0 0.2 0.9 5.4 10.8 13.5 13.2 12.6 10.1 8.8 7.2 5.8 4.4 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
WokingWoking 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 5.8 9.7 10.8 11.4 10.5 9.8 8.0 7.8 6.4 5.5 4.7 3.7 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
Solihull MoorsSolihull Moors 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.9 7.5 11.3 12.0 11.7 11.2 10.2 8.1 6.9 6.1 4.8 3.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
WealdstoneWealdstone 0.1 0.1 0.5 3.0 5.6 8.1 9.1 9.6 9.7 9.1 8.8 8.2 7.8 6.5 6.2 4.0 2.6 0.8 0.3 0.0
Boston UnitedBoston Utd 0.2 2.1 4.5 7.9 9.8 11.3 11.4 11.4 10.4 9.1 7.9 6.1 4.0 2.7 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Aldershot TownAldershot 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.6 5.9 8.5 9.8 10.5 11.4 10.6 10.0 8.7 7.4 5.9 3.9 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
AltrinchamAltrincham 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.5 5.8 7.1 8.7 10.3 10.8 10.6 11.0 10.7 8.7 6.0 3.2 1.0 0.3 0.1
Yeovil TownYeovil Town 0.0 0.5 1.5 3.0 4.0 5.4 6.5 7.5 9.0 9.8 10.8 11.3 10.8 10.0 6.3 2.7 0.8 0.2
Brackley TownBrackley 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.7 3.7 5.0 6.6 7.0 8.4 9.9 10.4 10.8 11.2 10.6 8.2 3.2 0.9 0.2
EastleighEastleigh 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.5 3.9 5.2 6.8 9.1 10.6 12.3 14.5 15.1 11.7 4.5 0.9 0.1
Sutton UnitedSutton United 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.1 2.9 4.4 6.4 7.3 9.5 10.5 11.8 12.5 13.5 10.2 4.9 2.0 0.3
Braintree TownBraintree 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 2.0 2.8 4.0 6.5 10.4 15.9 24.4 18.6 9.9 3.0
GatesheadGateshead 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 2.0 3.2 5.7 12.0 24.7 29.7 20.2
MorecambeMorecambe 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.9 6.0 12.6 26.5 30.2 19.0
Truro CityTruro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.9 11.5 25.0 57.0

Final League Table Projection

A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores. The projected points range shows the likely range of points for each team – for example, York City have a 90% chance of finishing between 94 and 110 points, a 50% chance of finishing between 99 and 106 points (this is the interquartile range), with their median expected points being 103.

Pos. Team Actual Projected Projected Points Range
P W D L Pts To Play Win % Draw % Loss % 90% range 50% range Exp. Pts
1 York City York City 35 25 8 2 83 11 50.5% 25.0% 24.4% 94 - 110 99 - 106 103
2 Rochdale Rochdale 34 26 4 4 82 12 42.6% 26.2% 31.2% 92 - 109 97 - 104 100
3 Carlisle United Carlisle United 35 22 5 8 71 11 42.6% 26.7% 30.7% 80 - 96 85 - 91 88
4 Boreham Wood Boreham Wood 34 19 7 8 64 12 35.6% 27.1% 37.3% 72 - 88 77 - 83 80
5 Scunthorpe United Scunthorpe United 33 16 10 7 58 13 44.0% 26.7% 29.3% 70 - 87 75 - 82 79
6 Forest Green Rovers Forest Green 36 17 11 8 62 10 46.4% 26.0% 27.6% 71 - 86 75 - 82 79
7 Southend United Southend United 31 15 7 9 52 15 47.2% 26.3% 26.5% 68 - 87 73 - 81 77
8 Hartlepool United Hartlepool United 34 13 12 9 51 12 36.8% 26.9% 36.2% 59 - 76 64 - 71 67
9 FC Halifax Town FC Halifax Town 36 15 8 13 53 10 32.6% 27.0% 40.3% 58 - 73 62 - 68 65
10 Tamworth Tamworth 34 12 9 13 45 12 33.8% 26.8% 39.4% 52 - 69 57 - 64 60
11 Woking Woking 31 10 8 13 38 15 37.4% 27.0% 35.6% 50 - 69 55 - 63 59
12 Solihull Moors Solihull Moors 34 11 10 13 43 12 34.0% 27.3% 38.8% 51 - 67 55 - 62 58
13 Wealdstone Wealdstone 31 10 9 12 39 15 32.5% 26.5% 40.9% 48 - 67 54 - 61 57
14 Boston United Boston Utd 35 11 10 14 43 11 34.8% 26.7% 38.5% 50 - 66 54 - 61 57
15 Aldershot Town Aldershot 34 12 6 16 42 12 31.5% 26.4% 42.1% 49 - 65 53 - 60 56
16 Altrincham Altrincham 35 12 4 19 40 11 36.9% 26.7% 36.4% 48 - 63 52 - 58 55
17 Yeovil Town Yeovil Town 33 11 5 17 38 13 31.5% 26.7% 41.9% 46 - 62 50 - 57 54
18 Brackley Town Brackley 33 9 9 15 36 13 35.6% 26.5% 37.9% 45 - 62 50 - 57 53
19 Eastleigh Eastleigh 35 10 9 16 39 11 30.0% 26.1% 43.9% 44 - 59 49 - 55 52
20 Sutton United Sutton United 34 8 12 14 36 12 34.4% 26.8% 38.9% 44 - 60 48 - 55 51
21 Braintree Town Braintree 35 8 9 18 33 11 33.5% 26.9% 39.6% 40 - 55 44 - 50 47
22 Gateshead Gateshead 33 7 5 21 26 13 32.5% 27.0% 40.5% 34 - 51 39 - 46 42
23 Morecambe Morecambe 35 6 9 20 27 11 35.5% 26.8% 37.6% 34 - 50 38 - 45 42
24 Truro City Truro 34 6 6 22 24 12 28.4% 26.5% 45.1% 30 - 46 34 - 41 37