Stat Attack

ELO League Table Projection

This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

Enterprise National League North

Final Points Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.

Final League Outcome Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club ChampionsPlay-offsMidtableRelegation
AFC FyldeAFC Fylde75.48% 24.52%
South ShieldsSouth Shields22.71% 77.29%
Kidderminster HarriersKidderminster Harriers1.28% 94.14% 4.58%
MacclesfieldMacclesfield0.31% 83.07% 16.62%
Merthyr TownMerthyr Town0.10% 83.95% 15.95%
DarlingtonDarlington0.12% 74.07% 25.81%
AFC Telford UnitedTelford 32.34% 67.66%
Spennymoor TownSpennymoor Town 28.40% 71.57% 0.03%
Scarborough AthleticScarborough Ath. 28.45% 71.55%
ChesterChester 22.45% 77.55%
RadcliffeRadcliffe 20.49% 79.51%
MarineMarine 17.55% 82.32% 0.13%
BuxtonBuxton 6.87% 92.77% 0.36%
ChorleyChorley 4.09% 95.36% 0.55%
Curzon AshtonCurzon 1.69% 97.09% 1.22%
King's Lynn TownKing's Lynn Town 0.06% 86.89% 13.05%
Worksop TownWorksop Town 0.01% 81.71% 18.28%
HerefordHereford 0.47% 74.58% 24.95%
Alfreton TownAlfreton 0.09% 64.64% 35.27%
SouthportSouthport 66.70% 33.30%
Bedford TownBedford Town 62.81% 37.19%
Oxford CityOxford City 35.70% 64.30%
Peterborough SportsPeterborough S. 28.35% 71.65%
LeamingtonLeamington 0.28% 99.72%

Final League Position Projection

A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club 123456789101112131415161718192021222324
Club 123456789101112131415161718192021222324
AFC FyldeAFC Fylde75.5 21.7 2.5 0.3 0.0
South ShieldsSouth Shields22.7 60.2 12.9 3.3 0.8 0.1 0.0
Kidderminster HarriersKidderminster Harriers1.3 11.1 38.0 23.0 11.8 6.9 3.4 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1
MacclesfieldMacclesfield0.3 4.1 20.0 21.7 16.4 12.9 8.2 5.3 3.7 2.8 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Merthyr TownMerthyr Town0.1 1.2 11.5 19.8 23.0 17.7 10.7 6.8 4.5 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0
DarlingtonDarlington0.1 1.6 10.5 16.9 18.6 15.6 10.8 7.8 6.7 4.1 3.0 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
AFC Telford UnitedTelford 0.1 1.4 3.9 6.4 8.9 11.7 11.5 11.7 11.2 9.3 9.1 6.7 4.5 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Spennymoor TownSpennymoor Town 0.0 1.0 2.8 5.6 8.3 10.7 11.0 10.9 10.5 9.8 8.6 7.7 5.7 3.5 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Scarborough AthleticScarborough Ath. 0.7 2.8 5.4 8.3 11.2 12.2 11.2 11.5 9.9 9.3 7.3 5.1 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
ChesterChester 0.4 1.3 3.4 6.7 10.6 12.3 13.0 12.9 11.3 9.5 7.9 5.2 3.2 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
RadcliffeRadcliffe 0.0 0.6 2.0 3.7 6.0 8.2 10.8 12.2 12.4 12.5 11.1 9.2 6.1 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
MarineMarine 0.0 0.5 1.7 3.2 5.0 7.2 8.2 8.8 9.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 8.9 6.4 4.4 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
BuxtonBuxton 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.5 5.2 6.5 8.2 9.9 10.9 12.7 13.0 10.4 7.4 4.4 2.3 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1
ChorleyChorley 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.4 4.1 5.3 6.6 9.0 10.4 11.9 13.7 12.8 8.7 5.7 3.8 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.2
Curzon AshtonCurzon 0.0 0.3 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.9 4.3 6.2 8.1 10.4 14.1 16.0 12.8 9.1 5.7 3.5 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1
King's Lynn TownKing's Lynn Town 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 2.4 3.7 6.5 9.4 13.4 14.5 13.6 12.0 9.0 6.8 4.6 1.6 0.0
Worksop TownWorksop Town 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.2 3.7 7.6 10.8 13.9 15.3 14.3 12.1 9.6 6.2 2.5 0.0
HerefordHereford 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.4 3.7 5.2 7.4 10.0 11.1 11.0 10.0 9.6 8.6 8.3 7.4 0.7
Alfreton TownAlfreton 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.2 3.5 5.7 8.3 9.4 10.0 10.7 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.0 1.0
SouthportSouthport 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.8 7.1 10.5 13.1 14.5 14.4 13.7 11.8 7.5 0.3
Bedford TownBedford Town 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.3 3.1 5.9 9.2 11.3 14.7 16.3 16.3 14.0 6.6 0.2
Oxford CityOxford City 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.3 4.1 6.5 8.9 12.0 16.4 21.0 25.5 1.3
Peterborough SportsPeterborough S. 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.1 4.7 7.1 10.6 14.7 20.6 32.8 3.5
LeamingtonLeamington 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 5.0 92.8

Final League Table Projection

A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores. The projected points range shows the likely range of points for each team – for example, AFC Fylde have a 90% chance of finishing between 85 and 103 points, a 50% chance of finishing between 90 and 98 points (this is the interquartile range), with their median expected points being 94.

Pos. Team Actual Projected Projected Points Range
P W D L Pts To Play Win % Draw % Loss % 90% range 50% range Exp. Pts
1 AFC Fylde AFC Fylde 33 24 3 6 75 13 40.1% 26.3% 33.6% 85 - 103 90 - 98 94
2 South Shields South Shields 33 22 8 3 74 13 28.8% 25.4% 45.8% 81 - 97 85 - 92 88
3 Kidderminster Harriers Kidderminster Harriers 32 15 11 6 56 14 49.6% 25.0% 25.4% 71 - 89 77 - 84 80
4 Macclesfield Macclesfield 31 15 7 9 52 15 45.6% 26.0% 28.4% 67 - 86 72 - 81 76
5 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 36 20 3 13 63 10 31.9% 26.5% 41.6% 68 - 83 72 - 78 75
6 Darlington Darlington 33 16 8 9 56 13 37.3% 26.5% 36.1% 65 - 83 70 - 78 74
7 AFC Telford United Telford 34 14 11 9 53 12 33.0% 26.3% 40.8% 60 - 76 64 - 71 68
8 Spennymoor Town Spennymoor Town 33 13 7 13 46 13 47.9% 25.4% 26.7% 59 - 77 64 - 72 68
9 Scarborough Athletic Scarborough Ath. 35 14 11 10 53 11 36.3% 26.9% 36.8% 60 - 76 65 - 71 68
10 Chester Chester 36 13 11 12 50 10 49.8% 24.9% 25.3% 60 - 74 64 - 71 67
11 Radcliffe Radcliffe 35 17 4 14 55 11 27.8% 26.2% 45.9% 60 - 75 64 - 70 67
12 Marine Marine 32 14 6 12 48 14 33.8% 26.7% 39.6% 57 - 75 62 - 70 66
13 Buxton Buxton 34 13 6 15 45 12 40.5% 26.5% 32.9% 55 - 71 59 - 66 63
14 Chorley Chorley 34 11 9 14 42 12 45.8% 25.9% 28.3% 53 - 70 58 - 65 62
15 Curzon Ashton Curzon 35 12 9 14 45 11 37.0% 26.7% 36.3% 53 - 68 57 - 63 60
16 King's Lynn Town King's Lynn Town 34 9 11 14 38 12 37.4% 26.4% 36.2% 47 - 63 51 - 58 55
17 Worksop Town Worksop Town 36 11 8 17 41 10 33.8% 26.3% 39.9% 47 - 61 51 - 57 54
18 Hereford Hereford 28 7 7 14 28 18 38.7% 26.7% 34.6% 43 - 64 49 - 58 54
19 Alfreton Town Alfreton 30 8 8 14 32 16 33.1% 26.7% 40.2% 43 - 62 48 - 56 52
20 Southport Southport 35 9 12 14 39 11 28.8% 25.5% 45.7% 44 - 59 48 - 54 51
21 Bedford Town Bedford Town 36 10 9 17 39 10 30.3% 25.9% 43.8% 44 - 58 48 - 54 51
22 Oxford City Oxford City 35 9 8 18 35 11 29.4% 26.4% 44.2% 40 - 56 44 - 51 47
23 Peterborough Sports Peterborough S. 35 9 6 20 33 11 33.4% 26.6% 39.9% 40 - 55 44 - 50 47
24 Leamington Leamington 33 4 7 22 19 13 29.6% 26.5% 43.9% 26 - 43 30 - 37 34