Stat Attack

ELO League Table Projection

This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

Enterprise National League South

Final Points Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.

Final League Outcome Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club ChampionsPlay-offsMidtableRelegation
Dorking WanderersDorking59.33% 40.02% 0.65%
Torquay UnitedTorquay United12.53% 76.84% 10.63%
HornchurchHornchurch9.03% 75.34% 15.63%
WorthingWorthing6.89% 73.71% 19.40%
Weston-super-MareWeston-SM5.45% 63.32% 31.23%
Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead United3.78% 67.25% 28.97%
Chelmsford CityChelmsford1.63% 49.66% 48.71%
Ebbsfleet UnitedEbbsfleet United0.34% 31.75% 67.91%
Maidstone UnitedMaidstone United0.23% 34.75% 65.02%
Hemel Hempstead TownHemel Hempstead0.28% 24.27% 75.45%
Chesham UnitedChesham United0.43% 28.04% 71.53%
Dagenham and RedbridgeDagenham & Redbridge0.01% 12.82% 87.17%
AFC TottonAFC Totton0.06% 13.41% 86.49% 0.04%
HorshamHorsham0.01% 8.60% 91.37% 0.02%
Slough TownSlough Town 0.16% 95.66% 4.18%
Dover AthleticDover Athletic 0.04% 95.56% 4.40%
Tonbridge AngelsTonbridge Angels 0.01% 85.34% 14.65%
Bath CityBath City 0.01% 68.40% 31.59%
SalisburySalisbury 66.99% 33.01%
FarnboroughFarnborough 63.26% 36.74%
Hampton and Richmond BoroughHampton & Richmond 43.67% 56.33%
Eastbourne BoroughEastbourne 41.31% 58.69%
Enfield TownEnfield Town 31.71% 68.29%
Chippenham TownChippenham Town 7.94% 92.06%

Final League Position Projection

A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club 123456789101112131415161718192021222324
Club 123456789101112131415161718192021222324
Dorking WanderersDorking59.3 19.7 9.5 5.3 3.2 1.8 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Torquay UnitedTorquay United12.5 19.9 18.0 14.4 10.6 8.3 5.6 4.3 2.3 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
HornchurchHornchurch9.0 17.6 16.4 14.4 11.3 8.7 7.1 5.1 3.9 2.5 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
WorthingWorthing6.9 12.7 15.1 14.9 12.0 10.2 8.8 6.4 4.5 3.3 2.5 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Weston-super-MareWeston-SM5.5 9.7 11.2 11.2 11.4 10.8 9.1 8.2 6.5 4.9 4.2 3.3 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.0
Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead United3.8 9.4 11.7 12.2 12.5 11.5 9.9 7.6 6.5 5.2 3.9 2.5 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chelmsford CityChelmsford1.6 4.4 6.7 8.1 9.6 10.1 10.7 9.7 9.4 8.5 6.5 6.0 4.6 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Ebbsfleet UnitedEbbsfleet United0.3 1.5 2.5 4.7 6.2 7.6 9.3 11.7 11.9 11.8 10.9 9.3 6.9 3.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Maidstone UnitedMaidstone United0.2 1.4 2.9 4.8 7.2 8.8 9.7 11.1 11.2 10.8 9.6 9.1 6.5 4.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Hemel Hempstead TownHemel Hempstead0.3 1.3 1.7 2.9 4.5 6.1 7.9 9.1 10.7 11.7 12.0 11.5 10.2 7.2 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0
Chesham UnitedChesham United0.4 1.6 2.6 3.8 5.2 6.7 8.3 8.4 10.2 10.4 11.1 10.5 9.6 7.1 2.9 1.0 0.2 0.1
Dagenham and RedbridgeDagenham & Redbridge0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.4 5.2 6.8 8.8 10.3 12.4 14.0 14.6 12.2 5.2 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.1
AFC TottonAFC Totton0.1 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.6 3.6 4.4 6.0 6.8 8.5 10.6 12.3 14.2 15.4 7.3 3.2 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
HorshamHorsham0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.3 4.9 6.6 8.9 10.8 12.8 15.9 18.1 8.2 3.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Slough TownSlough Town 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 2.3 4.3 8.7 20.6 21.1 14.7 10.5 7.0 4.2 2.4 1.4 0.4 0.0
Dover AthleticDover Athletic 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 3.6 8.2 20.9 20.7 16.0 11.0 6.7 5.0 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.1
Tonbridge AngelsTonbridge Angels 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.9 9.5 14.6 17.2 15.8 13.2 10.5 7.5 4.9 2.0 0.3
Bath CityBath City 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.5 6.3 8.8 12.3 12.4 13.2 11.1 11.2 9.2 7.5 3.7
SalisburySalisbury 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 4.1 7.4 10.2 13.2 15.0 15.2 12.8 11.1 7.2 1.9
FarnboroughFarnborough 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.9 5.1 8.0 10.6 12.3 12.0 12.6 12.4 11.3 8.8 4.3
Hampton and Richmond BoroughHampton & Richmond 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.1 5.5 8.0 11.6 14.0 15.1 16.3 15.9 9.1
Eastbourne BoroughEastbourne 0.1 0.7 2.6 5.4 8.3 10.8 13.5 15.9 17.1 16.1 9.6
Enfield TownEnfield Town 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 2.3 4.0 6.1 8.0 10.0 13.0 16.2 20.6 18.5
Chippenham TownChippenham Town 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.8 6.9 11.3 21.1 52.7

Final League Table Projection

A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores. The projected points range shows the likely range of points for each team – for example, Dorking Wanderers have a 90% chance of finishing between 77 and 93 points, a 50% chance of finishing between 82 and 88 points (this is the interquartile range), with their median expected points being 85.

Pos. Team Actual Projected Projected Points Range
P W D L Pts To Play Win % Draw % Loss % 90% range 50% range Exp. Pts
1 Dorking Wanderers Dorking 34 20 7 7 67 12 41.0% 26.4% 32.6% 77 - 93 82 - 88 85
2 Torquay United Torquay United 34 17 6 11 57 12 51.5% 24.7% 23.8% 70 - 86 75 - 82 79
3 Hornchurch Hornchurch 33 17 8 8 59 13 40.1% 26.5% 33.4% 70 - 87 74 - 82 78
4 Worthing Worthing 34 17 7 10 58 12 41.9% 26.4% 31.7% 68 - 84 73 - 80 76
5 Weston-super-Mare Weston-SM 31 16 6 9 54 15 38.4% 26.3% 35.3% 66 - 85 71 - 79 75
6 Maidenhead United Maidenhead United 33 15 7 11 52 13 50.0% 25.1% 24.9% 66 - 83 71 - 78 75
7 Chelmsford City Chelmsford 32 16 5 11 53 14 38.3% 26.5% 35.2% 64 - 82 69 - 76 73
8 Ebbsfleet United Ebbsfleet United 35 15 11 9 56 11 34.7% 26.0% 39.3% 63 - 78 67 - 73 70
9 Maidstone United Maidstone United 35 14 10 11 52 11 45.9% 26.3% 27.7% 62 - 78 67 - 73 70
10 Hemel Hempstead Town Hemel Hempstead 34 16 7 11 55 12 31.4% 26.4% 42.3% 62 - 78 66 - 73 69
11 Chesham United Chesham United 33 15 8 10 53 13 33.3% 26.6% 40.1% 61 - 78 66 - 73 69
12 Dagenham and Redbridge Dagenham & Redbridge 35 13 10 12 49 11 45.2% 25.7% 29.1% 59 - 75 64 - 70 67
13 AFC Totton AFC Totton 32 14 5 13 47 14 37.8% 26.7% 35.5% 58 - 76 63 - 70 67
14 Horsham Horsham 34 12 13 9 49 12 36.5% 26.6% 36.9% 57 - 74 62 - 69 65
15 Slough Town Slough Town 34 12 7 15 43 12 29.1% 26.0% 44.9% 49 - 65 53 - 60 56
16 Dover Athletic Dover Athletic 35 11 10 14 43 11 31.2% 26.1% 42.7% 49 - 64 53 - 59 56
17 Tonbridge Angels Tonbridge Angels 35 10 11 14 41 11 27.0% 25.6% 47.4% 46 - 60 50 - 56 53
18 Bath City Bath City 31 7 11 13 32 15 33.0% 26.1% 40.9% 42 - 60 47 - 54 51
19 Salisbury Salisbury 35 10 9 16 39 11 26.4% 25.4% 48.2% 44 - 58 47 - 53 50
20 Farnborough Farnborough 33 8 9 16 33 13 35.9% 26.4% 37.7% 42 - 59 47 - 54 50
21 Hampton and Richmond Borough Hampton & Richmond 35 9 9 17 36 11 26.6% 25.0% 48.4% 41 - 55 44 - 50 47
22 Eastbourne Borough Eastbourne 36 8 7 21 31 10 44.4% 26.1% 29.4% 40 - 54 44 - 50 47
23 Enfield Town Enfield Town 33 7 9 17 30 13 32.2% 26.3% 41.5% 38 - 55 42 - 49 46
24 Chippenham Town Chippenham Town 36 7 8 21 29 10 33.5% 26.7% 39.8% 34 - 49 39 - 45 42