This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.
Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.
Pitching In Northern Premier League Premier Division
Final Points Projection
A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.
Final League Outcome Projection
A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.
| Club | Champions | Play-offs | Midtable | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hednesford TownHednesford | 23.76% | 65.99% | 10.25% | |
 Warrington RylandsWarrington Rylands | 22.90% | 66.48% | 10.62% | |
 Stockton TownStockton Town | 23.08% | 61.14% | 15.78% | |
 Hebburn TownHebburn Town | 13.29% | 65.82% | 20.89% | |
 FC United of ManchesterFC United of Manchester | 9.27% | 59.39% | 31.34% | |
 Gainsborough TrinityGainsborough | 7.23% | 53.71% | 39.06% | |
 Bamber BridgeBamber Bridge | 0.36% | 15.84% | 83.80% | |
 Lancaster CityLancaster City | 0.08% | 6.84% | 93.08% | |
 Ashton UnitedAshton United | 0.01% | 1.38% | 98.02% | 0.59% |
 Cleethorpes TownCleethorpes Town | 0.02% | 3.00% | 95.37% | 1.61% |
 GuiseleyGuiseley | 0.24% | 98.62% | 1.14% | |
 Ilkeston TownIlkeston Town | 0.09% | 98.59% | 1.32% | |
 Warrington TownWarrington | 0.03% | 96.88% | 3.09% | |
 Whitby TownWhitby Town | 0.04% | 85.81% | 14.15% | |
 Leek TownLeek Town | 84.88% | 15.12% | ||
 Rushall OlympicRushall | 78.34% | 21.66% | ||
 Hyde UnitedHyde United | 0.01% | 71.22% | 28.77% | |
 Prescot CablesPrescot Cables | 62.28% | 37.72% | ||
 Morpeth TownMorpeth Town | 53.75% | 46.25% | ||
 Stocksbridge Park SteelsStocksbridge Park Steels | 49.11% | 50.89% | ||
 WorkingtonWorkington | 22.31% | 77.69% |
Final League Position Projection
A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
| Hednesford TownHednesford | 23.8 | 21.5 | 18.8 | 14.6 | 11.1 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 | |||||||||||
| Warrington RylandsWarrington Rylands | 22.9 | 21.7 | 19.0 | 14.7 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||||||||||
| Stockton TownStockton Town | 23.1 | 18.7 | 15.8 | 14.2 | 12.5 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Hebburn TownHebburn Town | 13.3 | 15.5 | 17.1 | 18.1 | 15.2 | 12.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |||||||||||
| FC United of ManchesterFC United of Manchester | 9.3 | 11.0 | 13.8 | 16.2 | 18.4 | 18.1 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Gainsborough TrinityGainsborough | 7.2 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 15.0 | 17.0 | 18.1 | 11.8 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Bamber BridgeBamber Bridge | 0.4 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 12.8 | 21.9 | 18.7 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||
| Lancaster CityLancaster City | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 7.7 | 17.2 | 21.2 | 18.0 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Ashton UnitedAshton United | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 8.2 | 13.5 | 16.5 | 15.0 | 12.0 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Cleethorpes TownCleethorpes Town | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 8.9 | 13.1 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| GuiseleyGuiseley | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 3.4 | 7.4 | 11.3 | 13.8 | 14.1 | 13.3 | 10.8 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | ||
| Ilkeston TownIlkeston Town | 0.1 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 6.4 | 10.2 | 13.6 | 15.3 | 13.9 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | ||||
| Warrington TownWarrington | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 12.6 | 13.7 | 12.9 | 11.2 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | ||||
| Whitby TownWhitby Town | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.2 | |||
| Leek TownLeek Town | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 11.7 | 12.7 | 13.0 | 11.6 | 10.6 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.3 | |||||
| Rushall OlympicRushall | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 12.1 | 12.5 | 11.8 | 10.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | ||||||
| Hyde UnitedHyde United | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 9.9 | 11.4 | 11.5 | 11.7 | 11.8 | 10.0 | 7.0 | ||||
| Prescot CablesPrescot Cables | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 11.9 | 13.7 | 14.8 | 14.2 | 8.7 | ||||||
| Morpeth TownMorpeth Town | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 12.1 | 14.8 | 17.0 | 14.5 | ||||||
| Stocksbridge Park SteelsStocksbridge Park Steels | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 10.6 | 12.3 | 15.0 | 17.0 | 18.8 | ||||||
| WorkingtonWorkington | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 8.8 | 13.3 | 21.8 | 42.6 |
Final League Table Projection
A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores. The projected points range shows the likely range of points for each team – for example, Hednesford Town have a 90% chance of finishing between 63 and 77 points, a 50% chance of finishing between 67 and 73 points (this is the interquartile range), with their median expected points being 70.
| Pos. | Team | Actual | Projected | Projected Points Range | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P | W | D | L | Pts | To Play | Win % | Draw % | Loss % | 90% range | 50% range | Exp. Pts | ||
| 1 |
Hednesford Town
Hednesford
|
31 | 16 | 9 | 6 | 57 | 9 | 37.9% | 27.1% | 35.0% | 63 - 77 | 67 - 73 | 70 |
| 2 |
Warrington Rylands
Warrington Rylands
|
32 | 15 | 12 | 5 | 57 | 8 | 42.8% | 26.6% | 30.6% | 63 - 76 | 67 - 72 | 69 |
| 3 |
Stockton Town
Stockton Town
|
30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 52 | 10 | 47.3% | 25.7% | 27.0% | 61 - 76 | 66 - 72 | 69 |
| 4 |
Hebburn Town
Hebburn Town
|
31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 56 | 9 | 33.4% | 26.8% | 39.8% | 61 - 75 | 64 - 70 | 67 |
| 5 |
FC United of Manchester
FC United of Manchester
|
31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 56 | 9 | 29.6% | 26.5% | 43.9% | 60 - 73 | 63 - 69 | 66 |
| 6 |
Gainsborough Trinity
Gainsborough
|
30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 | 10 | 40.1% | 26.7% | 33.2% | 58 - 73 | 62 - 69 | 66 |
| 7 |
Bamber Bridge
Bamber Bridge
|
30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 46 | 10 | 35.3% | 27.0% | 37.6% | 52 - 67 | 56 - 62 | 59 |
| 8 |
Lancaster City
Lancaster City
|
31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 47 | 9 | 31.2% | 26.6% | 42.1% | 51 - 65 | 55 - 61 | 58 |
| 9 |
Ashton United
Ashton United
|
30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 40 | 10 | 40.3% | 27.0% | 32.7% | 47 - 62 | 52 - 58 | 55 |
| 10 |
Cleethorpes Town
Cleethorpes Town
|
27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 35 | 13 | 39.1% | 27.0% | 33.9% | 45 - 63 | 50 - 57 | 54 |
| 11 |
Guiseley
Guiseley
|
31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 39 | 9 | 40.9% | 26.8% | 32.3% | 46 - 59 | 50 - 55 | 52 |
| 12 |
Ilkeston Town
Ilkeston Town
|
32 | 12 | 4 | 16 | 40 | 8 | 40.6% | 26.8% | 32.6% | 45 - 59 | 49 - 55 | 52 |
| 13 |
Warrington Town
Warrington
|
32 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 40 | 8 | 34.6% | 26.9% | 38.5% | 44 - 57 | 48 - 53 | 50 |
| 14 |
Whitby Town
Whitby Town
|
29 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 34 | 11 | 33.2% | 26.8% | 40.0% | 40 - 56 | 45 - 51 | 48 |
| 15 |
Leek Town
Leek Town
|
32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 37 | 8 | 32.7% | 26.9% | 40.5% | 41 - 53 | 44 - 50 | 47 |
| 16 |
Rushall Olympic
Rushall
|
31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 35 | 9 | 33.5% | 26.8% | 39.7% | 40 - 54 | 43 - 49 | 46 |
| 17 |
Hyde United
Hyde United
|
30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 32 | 10 | 35.0% | 27.1% | 37.8% | 38 - 53 | 42 - 48 | 45 |
| 18 |
Prescot Cables
Prescot Cables
|
31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 9 | 35.1% | 27.2% | 37.8% | 37 - 51 | 41 - 47 | 44 |
| 19 |
Morpeth Town
Morpeth Town
|
30 | 8 | 5 | 17 | 29 | 10 | 38.2% | 27.2% | 34.6% | 36 - 51 | 40 - 46 | 43 |
| 20 |
Stocksbridge Park Steels
Stocksbridge Park Steels
|
30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 30 | 10 | 34.8% | 27.0% | 38.2% | 36 - 51 | 40 - 46 | 43 |
| 21 |
Workington
Workington
|
31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 29 | 9 | 31.1% | 26.5% | 42.4% | 33 - 47 | 37 - 43 | 40 |