This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.
Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.
Premier League
Final Points Projection
A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.
Final League Outcome Projection
A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.
| Club | Champions | Midtable | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|
 ArsenalArsenal | 76.42% | 23.58% | |
 Manchester CityMan City | 23.54% | 76.46% | |
 LiverpoolLiverpool | 0.03% | 99.97% | |
 Aston VillaAston Villa | 100.00% | ||
 ChelseaChelsea | 100.00% | ||
 Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 0.01% | 99.99% | |
 BrentfordBrentford | 100.00% | ||
 EvertonEverton | 100.00% | ||
 Newcastle UnitedNewcastle United | 99.99% | 0.01% | |
 Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace | 99.99% | 0.01% | |
 AFC BournemouthBournemouth | 99.97% | 0.03% | |
 Brighton and Hove AlbionBrighton | 99.97% | 0.03% | |
 FulhamFulham | 99.96% | 0.04% | |
 SunderlandSunderland | 99.83% | 0.17% | |
 Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest | 87.19% | 12.81% | |
 Leeds UnitedLeeds United | 81.77% | 18.23% | |
 Tottenham HotspurTottenham | 84.02% | 15.98% | |
 West Ham UnitedWest Ham United | 43.21% | 56.79% | |
 BurnleyBurnley | 3.03% | 96.97% | |
 Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 1.07% | 98.93% |
Final League Position Projection
A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| ArsenalArsenal | 76.4 | 23.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||||||||
| Manchester CityMan City | 23.5 | 70.7 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||
| LiverpoolLiverpool | 0.0 | 2.1 | 38.7 | 25.8 | 16.9 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Aston VillaAston Villa | 2.9 | 29.2 | 27.4 | 20.3 | 12.5 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | ||||||||||
| ChelseaChelsea | 0.8 | 13.1 | 21.9 | 25.2 | 19.6 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | ||||||||
| Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 0.0 | 0.3 | 12.7 | 18.0 | 21.9 | 22.2 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |||||||
| BrentfordBrentford | 0.0 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 11.6 | 18.5 | 18.1 | 14.9 | 11.1 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| EvertonEverton | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 9.1 | 14.1 | 15.8 | 15.3 | 13.5 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||
| Newcastle UnitedNewcastle United | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 5.4 | 11.3 | 14.9 | 16.0 | 15.1 | 12.4 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||
| Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace | 0.1 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 4.8 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 14.2 | 13.7 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||
| AFC BournemouthBournemouth | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 15.6 | 16.0 | 14.2 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||
| Brighton and Hove AlbionBrighton | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 11.0 | 14.0 | 15.9 | 15.9 | 13.4 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | ||||
| FulhamFulham | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 11.5 | 13.7 | 17.1 | 19.1 | 12.5 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | ||||
| SunderlandSunderland | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 10.4 | 17.5 | 29.4 | 19.3 | 8.8 | 1.9 | 0.2 | |||||
| Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 5.2 | 10.7 | 21.5 | 25.4 | 20.8 | 11.4 | 1.4 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Leeds UnitedLeeds United | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 8.9 | 18.2 | 23.8 | 23.0 | 15.5 | 2.5 | 0.3 | ||||||
| Tottenham HotspurTottenham | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 8.2 | 19.7 | 24.5 | 26.0 | 14.6 | 1.4 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| West Ham UnitedWest Ham United | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 4.9 | 12.3 | 24.2 | 46.1 | 9.6 | 1.0 | |||||||||
| BurnleyBurnley | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 7.9 | 52.5 | 36.6 | |||||||||||||
| Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 4.3 | 32.7 | 62.0 |
Final League Table Projection
A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores. The projected points range shows the likely range of points for each team – for example, Arsenal have a 90% chance of finishing between 74 and 87 points, a 50% chance of finishing between 78 and 84 points (this is the interquartile range), with their median expected points being 81.
| Pos. | Team | Actual | Projected | Projected Points Range | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P | W | D | L | Pts | To Play | Win % | Draw % | Loss % | 90% range | 50% range | Exp. Pts | ||
| 1 |
Arsenal
Arsenal
|
29 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 64 | 9 | 54.4% | 23.6% | 22.0% | 74 - 87 | 78 - 84 | 81 |
| 2 |
Manchester City
Man City
|
29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 60 | 9 | 52.3% | 24.7% | 23.0% | 69 - 83 | 74 - 79 | 76 |
| 3 |
Liverpool
Liverpool
|
29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 48 | 9 | 56.9% | 23.1% | 20.0% | 59 - 72 | 63 - 68 | 66 |
| 4 |
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
|
29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 51 | 9 | 44.1% | 24.7% | 31.2% | 58 - 72 | 62 - 68 | 65 |
| 5 |
Chelsea
Chelsea
|
29 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 48 | 9 | 43.9% | 25.3% | 30.7% | 55 - 69 | 59 - 65 | 62 |
| 6 |
Manchester United
Man Utd
|
29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 51 | 9 | 32.2% | 25.8% | 42.0% | 55 - 69 | 59 - 65 | 62 |
| 7 |
Brentford
Brentford
|
29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 44 | 9 | 36.0% | 25.4% | 38.5% | 50 - 63 | 53 - 59 | 56 |
| 8 |
Everton
Everton
|
28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 10 | 31.8% | 25.0% | 43.2% | 48 - 62 | 52 - 58 | 55 |
| 9 |
Newcastle United
Newcastle United
|
29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 39 | 9 | 45.5% | 24.5% | 30.0% | 47 - 60 | 51 - 56 | 53 |
| 10 |
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace
|
28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 38 | 10 | 40.8% | 25.8% | 33.4% | 46 - 60 | 50 - 56 | 53 |
| 11 |
AFC Bournemouth
Bournemouth
|
29 | 9 | 13 | 7 | 40 | 9 | 33.2% | 26.0% | 40.8% | 45 - 58 | 48 - 54 | 51 |
| 12 |
Brighton and Hove Albion
Brighton
|
29 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 37 | 9 | 41.8% | 25.7% | 32.5% | 44 - 57 | 48 - 53 | 51 |
| 13 |
Fulham
Fulham
|
29 | 12 | 4 | 13 | 40 | 9 | 29.5% | 25.4% | 45.1% | 44 - 57 | 47 - 53 | 50 |
| 14 |
Sunderland
Sunderland
|
29 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 40 | 9 | 17.5% | 21.2% | 61.3% | 41 - 53 | 44 - 49 | 46 |
| 15 |
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
|
29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 28 | 9 | 39.6% | 26.3% | 34.1% | 34 - 48 | 38 - 44 | 41 |
| 16 |
Leeds United
Leeds United
|
28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 28 | 10 | 32.8% | 26.6% | 40.6% | 33 - 48 | 37 - 43 | 40 |
| 17 |
Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham
|
29 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 29 | 9 | 32.2% | 25.3% | 42.6% | 34 - 47 | 37 - 43 | 40 |
| 18 |
West Ham United
West Ham United
|
29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 28 | 9 | 23.7% | 24.2% | 52.1% | 31 - 43 | 34 - 39 | 36 |
| 19 |
Burnley
Burnley
|
29 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 19 | 9 | 27.2% | 25.3% | 47.4% | 23 - 35 | 26 - 31 | 28 |
| 20 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Wolves
|
30 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 16 | 8 | 34.9% | 26.1% | 39.0% | 20 - 33 | 24 - 29 | 26 |