This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.
Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.
Pitching In Southern League Premier Division (Central)
Final Points Projection
A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.
Final League Outcome Projection
A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.
| Club | Champions | Play-offs | Midtable | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Harborough TownHarborough Town | 67.42% | 32.58% | ||
 Spalding UnitedSpalding United | 30.54% | 69.46% | ||
 Real BedfordReal Bedford | 2.04% | 93.68% | 4.28% | |
 Halesowen TownHalesowen Town | 48.52% | 51.48% | ||
 QuornQuorn | 37.91% | 62.09% | ||
 Kettering TownKettering Town | 40.32% | 59.67% | 0.01% | |
 Needham MarketNeedham Market | 31.27% | 68.73% | ||
 Redditch UnitedRedditch United | 13.99% | 86.01% | ||
 Banbury UnitedBanbury Utd | 11.93% | 88.07% | ||
 Worcester CityWorcester City | 8.93% | 91.07% | ||
 LeistonLeiston | 5.56% | 94.44% | ||
 Stratford TownStratford Town | 3.07% | 96.85% | 0.08% | |
 Bishop's StortfordBishop's Stortford | 1.27% | 98.73% | ||
 Bury TownBury Town | 1.51% | 98.44% | 0.05% | |
 AlvechurchAlvechurch | 83.20% | 16.80% | ||
 StourbridgeStourbridge | 79.41% | 20.59% | ||
 Bromsgrove SportingBromsgrove | 63.03% | 36.97% | ||
 St. Ives TownSt. Ives | 64.22% | 35.78% | ||
 StamfordStamford | 58.16% | 41.84% | ||
 BarwellBarwell | 48.75% | 51.25% | ||
 AFC SudburyAFC Sudbury | 3.03% | 96.97% | ||
 Royston TownRoyston | 0.34% | 99.66% |
Final League Position Projection
A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
| Harborough TownHarborough Town | 67.4 | 28.0 | 4.5 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Spalding UnitedSpalding United | 30.5 | 63.2 | 6.2 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Real BedfordReal Bedford | 2.0 | 8.5 | 66.2 | 13.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||
| Halesowen TownHalesowen Town | 0.2 | 7.0 | 22.0 | 19.3 | 15.0 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| QuornQuorn | 0.0 | 4.1 | 16.3 | 17.4 | 15.9 | 13.2 | 10.9 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Kettering TownKettering Town | 0.1 | 5.9 | 19.2 | 15.2 | 13.2 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||||
| Needham MarketNeedham Market | 0.1 | 3.5 | 12.7 | 15.1 | 14.7 | 13.7 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |||||||
| Redditch UnitedRedditch United | 0.9 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 10.1 | 12.4 | 12.5 | 12.7 | 11.6 | 10.4 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Banbury UnitedBanbury Utd | 0.7 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 10.7 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||||
| Worcester CityWorcester City | 0.5 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 11.5 | 11.8 | 11.6 | 11.6 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |||||||
| LeistonLeiston | 0.3 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |||||||
| Stratford TownStratford Town | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 10.0 | 11.5 | 13.7 | 16.0 | 15.8 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |||||
| Bishop's StortfordBishop's Stortford | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 15.1 | 16.8 | 18.6 | 8.1 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | ||||||
| Bury TownBury Town | 0.0 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 14.5 | 17.7 | 17.9 | 6.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |||||
| AlvechurchAlvechurch | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 8.4 | 22.3 | 18.8 | 14.4 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 1.3 | 0.1 | ||||||
| StourbridgeStourbridge | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 6.6 | 19.0 | 19.2 | 17.2 | 14.0 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 1.5 | 0.1 | |||||||
| Bromsgrove SportingBromsgrove | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 8.6 | 15.1 | 17.7 | 19.0 | 18.4 | 16.0 | 2.4 | 0.1 | |||||||||
| St. Ives TownSt. Ives | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 9.2 | 16.0 | 18.2 | 17.9 | 16.8 | 15.9 | 2.9 | 0.2 | ||||||||
| StamfordStamford | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 8.9 | 13.4 | 15.2 | 16.3 | 17.5 | 18.2 | 5.1 | 1.1 | ||||||||
| BarwellBarwell | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 4.7 | 9.7 | 14.7 | 18.6 | 22.7 | 22.6 | 5.5 | 0.5 | ||||||||||
| AFC SudburyAFC Sudbury | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 4.1 | 9.4 | 55.2 | 28.3 | ||||||||||||||
| Royston TownRoyston | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 3.0 | 26.2 | 69.6 |
Final League Table Projection
A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores. The projected points range shows the likely range of points for each team – for example, Harborough Town have a 90% chance of finishing between 82 and 99 points, a 50% chance of finishing between 87 and 94 points (this is the interquartile range), with their median expected points being 91.
| Pos. | Team | Actual | Projected | Projected Points Range | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P | W | D | L | Pts | To Play | Win % | Draw % | Loss % | 90% range | 50% range | Exp. Pts | ||
| 1 |
Harborough Town
Harborough Town
|
29 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 69 | 13 | 46.9% | 25.8% | 27.3% | 82 - 99 | 87 - 94 | 91 |
| 2 |
Spalding United
Spalding United
|
33 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 73 | 9 | 42.0% | 26.8% | 31.2% | 80 - 94 | 84 - 90 | 87 |
| 3 |
Real Bedford
Real Bedford
|
29 | 18 | 5 | 6 | 59 | 13 | 37.8% | 26.8% | 35.4% | 69 - 86 | 73 - 81 | 77 |
| 4 |
Halesowen Town
Halesowen Town
|
31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 51 | 11 | 41.6% | 27.0% | 31.5% | 60 - 76 | 64 - 71 | 68 |
| 5 |
Quorn
Quorn
|
32 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 53 | 10 | 37.1% | 27.0% | 35.8% | 60 - 74 | 64 - 70 | 67 |
| 6 |
Kettering Town
Kettering Town
|
28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 42 | 14 | 50.1% | 25.5% | 24.4% | 57 - 75 | 63 - 70 | 67 |
| 7 |
Needham Market
Needham Market
|
31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 50 | 11 | 39.8% | 26.9% | 33.3% | 58 - 74 | 63 - 69 | 66 |
| 8 |
Redditch United
Redditch United
|
32 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 52 | 10 | 30.2% | 26.4% | 43.4% | 57 - 71 | 61 - 67 | 64 |
| 9 |
Banbury United
Banbury Utd
|
29 | 13 | 6 | 10 | 45 | 13 | 35.3% | 26.5% | 38.3% | 54 - 71 | 59 - 66 | 62 |
| 10 |
Worcester City
Worcester City
|
31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 47 | 11 | 34.2% | 26.6% | 39.2% | 54 - 69 | 58 - 64 | 61 |
| 11 |
Leiston
Leiston
|
32 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 48 | 10 | 32.9% | 27.0% | 40.1% | 53 - 68 | 57 - 64 | 60 |
| 12 |
Stratford Town
Stratford Town
|
31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 11 | 36.7% | 26.8% | 36.5% | 50 - 67 | 55 - 62 | 58 |
| 13 |
Bishop's Stortford
Bishop's Stortford
|
32 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 45 | 10 | 30.3% | 26.5% | 43.2% | 51 - 66 | 55 - 61 | 58 |
| 14 |
Bury Town
Bury Town
|
32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 44 | 10 | 36.5% | 27.0% | 36.5% | 50 - 65 | 55 - 61 | 58 |
| 15 |
Alvechurch
Alvechurch
|
29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 32 | 13 | 31.0% | 26.3% | 42.7% | 39 - 56 | 44 - 51 | 47 |
| 16 |
Stourbridge
Stourbridge
|
31 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 30 | 11 | 40.8% | 26.9% | 32.3% | 39 - 54 | 43 - 50 | 46 |
| 17 |
Bromsgrove Sporting
Bromsgrove
|
32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 10 | 26.1% | 26.2% | 47.7% | 38 - 52 | 41 - 47 | 44 |
| 18 |
St. Ives Town
St. Ives
|
32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 32 | 10 | 31.9% | 26.9% | 41.2% | 37 - 52 | 41 - 47 | 44 |
| 19 |
Stamford
Stamford
|
30 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 27 | 12 | 38.8% | 26.8% | 34.4% | 36 - 53 | 41 - 48 | 44 |
| 20 |
Barwell
Barwell
|
33 | 8 | 8 | 17 | 32 | 9 | 31.2% | 26.8% | 42.0% | 36 - 50 | 40 - 46 | 43 |
| 21 |
AFC Sudbury
AFC Sudbury
|
32 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 22 | 10 | 31.9% | 26.6% | 41.5% | 27 - 42 | 31 - 37 | 34 |
| 22 |
Royston Town
Royston
|
33 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 18 | 9 | 36.7% | 27.2% | 36.1% | 24 - 37 | 27 - 33 | 30 |