Stat Attack

ELO League Table Projection

This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

Pitching In Southern League Premier Division (South)

Final Points Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.

Final League Outcome Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club ChampionsPlay-offsMidtableRelegation
Walton and HershamWalton and Hersham94.05% 5.95%
Gloucester CityGloucester City3.90% 96.04% 0.06%
Farnham TownFarnham Town1.97% 94.14% 3.89%
Poole TownPoole Town0.08% 93.74% 6.18%
SholingSholing 36.20% 63.80%
Gosport BoroughGosport Borough 26.60% 73.40%
Havant and WaterloovilleHavant & Waterlooville 17.44% 82.53% 0.03%
Chertsey TownChertsey Town 16.11% 83.88% 0.01%
BerkhamstedBerkhamsted 9.80% 90.17% 0.03%
Wimborne TownWimborne Town 2.30% 93.92% 3.78%
UxbridgeUxbridge 0.17% 97.52% 2.31%
Hanwell TownHanwell Town 1.01% 89.53% 9.46%
Bracknell TownBracknell 0.09% 95.99% 3.92%
Dorchester TownDorchester 0.11% 90.68% 9.21%
Evesham UnitedEvesham United 0.23% 89.29% 10.48%
Yate TownYate Town 0.04% 72.43% 27.53%
Basingstoke TownBasingstoke 0.03% 70.47% 29.50%
Taunton TownTaunton Town 70.27% 29.73%
Hungerford TownHungerford Town 66.83% 33.17%
Plymouth ParkwayPlymouth Parkway 30.42% 69.58%
WeymouthWeymouth 27.79% 72.21%
Tiverton TownTiverton 0.95% 99.05%

Final League Position Projection

A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club 12345678910111213141516171819202122
Club 12345678910111213141516171819202122
Walton and HershamWalton and Hersham94.1 5.3 0.6 0.1
Gloucester CityGloucester City3.9 61.2 27.4 7.0 0.5 0.1
Farnham TownFarnham Town2.0 25.1 39.9 22.7 6.5 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Poole TownPoole Town0.1 8.1 27.1 46.4 12.3 4.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
SholingSholing 0.2 2.2 8.2 25.6 21.1 16.3 10.9 7.2 4.4 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Gosport BoroughGosport Borough 0.0 1.2 6.1 19.3 19.9 16.7 14.4 10.2 6.0 3.2 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Havant and WaterloovilleHavant & Waterlooville 0.0 0.7 3.7 13.0 17.4 17.1 15.4 11.9 7.5 5.1 3.3 1.9 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Chertsey TownChertsey Town 0.1 0.7 3.6 11.7 14.2 16.7 15.9 13.0 9.1 5.7 3.8 2.4 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
BerkhamstedBerkhamsted 0.0 0.3 1.8 7.7 12.2 14.9 16.1 15.8 11.5 8.4 5.1 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wimborne TownWimborne Town 0.1 0.4 1.9 3.8 5.9 7.8 9.0 11.1 11.7 9.5 8.7 7.5 6.4 5.4 3.9 3.3 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.0
UxbridgeUxbridge 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.2 4.4 7.6 11.6 12.3 12.4 11.6 10.3 8.4 6.9 5.3 3.5 1.5 0.7 0.1
Hanwell TownHanwell Town 0.1 0.9 1.9 2.9 4.3 6.5 8.2 9.6 9.6 9.4 8.9 8.5 7.2 6.9 5.7 4.9 2.9 1.7 0.0
Bracknell TownBracknell 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.2 4.4 7.4 9.5 11.8 12.7 12.3 11.8 10.0 7.6 4.8 2.7 1.0 0.2
Dorchester TownDorchester 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.5 4.5 7.1 9.1 10.5 10.8 10.9 9.7 9.1 8.0 6.8 5.0 2.9 1.3 0.0
Evesham UnitedEvesham United 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 3.0 4.6 6.6 7.9 10.2 10.3 10.3 9.9 9.5 8.2 6.9 5.3 3.4 1.6 0.1
Yate TownYate Town 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.7 2.7 4.2 5.2 7.0 7.8 9.1 10.7 11.3 11.3 11.0 9.6 6.6 0.4
Basingstoke TownBasingstoke 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.8 3.2 5.1 6.5 8.0 9.1 10.7 11.7 12.7 12.7 10.2 6.1 0.6
Taunton TownTaunton Town 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.6 2.8 4.6 5.2 6.4 7.8 9.1 9.2 10.8 11.6 11.7 9.7 7.8 0.5
Hungerford TownHungerford Town 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.8 5.3 6.7 8.5 10.5 12.7 13.9 14.1 12.0 6.7 0.5
Plymouth ParkwayPlymouth Parkway 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.5 3.7 4.7 6.2 8.8 12.8 20.3 31.6 4.9
WeymouthWeymouth 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.9 2.9 4.4 6.6 9.9 15.4 23.9 29.2 3.7
Tiverton TownTiverton 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 2.2 6.7 89.3

Final League Table Projection

A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores. The projected points range shows the likely range of points for each team – for example, Walton and Hersham have a 90% chance of finishing between 84 and 100 points, a 50% chance of finishing between 89 and 95 points (this is the interquartile range), with their median expected points being 92.

Pos. Team Actual Projected Projected Points Range
P W D L Pts To Play Win % Draw % Loss % 90% range 50% range Exp. Pts
1 Walton and Hersham Walton and Hersham 31 23 4 4 73 11 49.1% 25.0% 25.9% 84 - 100 89 - 95 92
2 Gloucester City Gloucester City 32 19 7 6 64 10 46.1% 25.5% 28.4% 73 - 88 77 - 84 80
3 Farnham Town Farnham Town 27 16 7 4 55 15 37.9% 26.6% 35.4% 67 - 86 72 - 80 76
4 Poole Town Poole Town 32 18 7 7 61 10 31.5% 26.4% 42.1% 66 - 81 70 - 76 73
5 Sholing Sholing 31 13 12 6 51 11 33.0% 26.7% 40.3% 57 - 73 62 - 68 65
6 Gosport Borough Gosport Borough 32 15 6 11 51 10 34.5% 26.8% 38.7% 57 - 72 61 - 67 64
7 Havant and Waterlooville Havant & Waterlooville 31 13 5 13 44 11 46.5% 25.8% 27.7% 54 - 70 59 - 65 62
8 Chertsey Town Chertsey Town 30 13 9 8 48 12 29.5% 26.2% 44.3% 54 - 70 58 - 65 62
9 Berkhamsted Berkhamsted 32 13 9 10 48 10 34.4% 26.6% 39.0% 54 - 69 58 - 64 61
10 Wimborne Town Wimborne Town 29 9 10 10 37 13 38.2% 27.0% 34.8% 47 - 64 52 - 59 55
11 Uxbridge Uxbridge 33 11 10 12 43 9 33.4% 26.3% 40.3% 48 - 61 51 - 57 54
12 Hanwell Town Hanwell Town 29 10 6 13 36 13 35.8% 26.8% 37.4% 45 - 62 50 - 57 53
13 Bracknell Town Bracknell 33 12 8 13 44 9 26.1% 24.9% 49.0% 47 - 60 51 - 56 53
14 Dorchester Town Dorchester 31 9 9 13 36 11 42.0% 26.3% 31.7% 45 - 60 49 - 56 53
15 Evesham United Evesham United 31 9 10 12 37 11 36.5% 26.7% 36.8% 44 - 60 49 - 55 52
16 Yate Town Yate Town 31 9 7 15 34 11 36.9% 26.7% 36.4% 41 - 57 46 - 52 49
17 Basingstoke Town Basingstoke 32 10 6 16 36 10 34.1% 27.1% 38.8% 42 - 56 46 - 52 49
18 Taunton Town Taunton Town 30 8 6 16 30 12 43.3% 26.4% 30.3% 41 - 57 45 - 52 49
19 Hungerford Town Hungerford Town 33 9 9 15 36 9 37.9% 27.0% 35.1% 42 - 56 46 - 52 49
20 Plymouth Parkway Plymouth Parkway 30 8 6 16 30 12 31.1% 26.5% 42.4% 37 - 53 41 - 48 44
21 Weymouth Weymouth 33 8 7 18 31 9 39.9% 26.9% 33.2% 37 - 51 41 - 47 44
22 Tiverton Town Tiverton 27 4 2 21 14 15 31.7% 26.4% 41.9% 23 - 42 28 - 36 32