This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.
Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.
FA Women's National League Southern Division
Final Points Projection
A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.
Final League Outcome Projection
A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.
| Club | Midtable |
|---|---|
 Oxford United WomenOxford United WFC | 100.00% |
 Portsmouth FC WomenPortsmouth FCW | 100.00% |
 AFC Bournemouth WomenBournemouth WFC | 100.00% |
 Fulham FC WomenFulham FCW | 100.00% |
 Lewes FC WomenLewes FCW | 100.00% |
 Exeter City WomenExeter City WFC | 100.00% |
 AFC Wimbledon WomenAFC Wimbledon Women | 100.00% |
 Hashtag United WomenHashtag United WFC | 100.00% |
 Real Bedford WomenReal Bedford WFC | 100.00% |
 Cheltenham Town WomenCheltenham Town WFC | 100.00% |
 Swindon Town WomenSwindon WFC | 100.00% |
 Plymouth Argyle WomenPlymouth Argyle WFC | 100.00% |
Final League Position Projection
A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| Oxford United WomenOxford United WFC | 82.3 | 12.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| Portsmouth FC WomenPortsmouth FCW | 9.9 | 38.1 | 26.4 | 14.6 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |||
| AFC Bournemouth WomenBournemouth WFC | 5.3 | 32.2 | 30.5 | 18.5 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Fulham FC WomenFulham FCW | 1.9 | 9.4 | 18.0 | 23.7 | 22.2 | 13.6 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Lewes FC WomenLewes FCW | 0.6 | 5.7 | 14.0 | 23.9 | 24.8 | 16.4 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Exeter City WomenExeter City WFC | 0.0 | 0.7 | 3.0 | 7.6 | 15.0 | 23.7 | 24.2 | 15.9 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| AFC Wimbledon WomenAFC Wimbledon Women | 0.0 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 7.4 | 13.5 | 18.8 | 21.8 | 19.2 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| Hashtag United WomenHashtag United WFC | 0.1 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 7.8 | 17.0 | 23.0 | 25.6 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | |
| Real Bedford WomenReal Bedford WFC | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 3.4 | 9.2 | 20.5 | 27.0 | 24.2 | 14.3 | |||
| Cheltenham Town WomenCheltenham Town WFC | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 3.4 | 8.9 | 19.3 | 21.2 | 22.5 | 22.9 | ||
| Swindon Town WomenSwindon WFC | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 7.4 | 17.3 | 20.5 | 23.8 | 26.9 | |||
| Plymouth Argyle WomenPlymouth Argyle WFC | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 6.4 | 14.0 | 18.3 | 23.6 | 33.9 |
Final League Table Projection
A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores. The projected points range shows the likely range of points for each team – for example, Oxford United Women have a 90% chance of finishing between 46 and 63 points, a 50% chance of finishing between 52 and 59 points (this is the interquartile range), with their median expected points being 56.
| Pos. | Team | Actual | Projected | Projected Points Range | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P | W | D | L | Pts | To Play | Win % | Draw % | Loss % | 90% range | 50% range | Exp. Pts | ||
| 1 |
Oxford United Women
Oxford United WFC
|
8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 14 | 71.0% | 11.5% | 17.6% | 46 - 63 | 52 - 59 | 56 |
| 2 |
Portsmouth FC Women
Portsmouth FCW
|
7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 15 | 65.0% | 12.5% | 22.5% | 35 - 54 | 41 - 49 | 45 |
| 3 |
AFC Bournemouth Women
Bournemouth WFC
|
8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 14 | 62.7% | 12.6% | 24.7% | 35 - 53 | 41 - 48 | 44 |
| 4 |
Fulham FC Women
Fulham FCW
|
7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 15 | 41.7% | 14.3% | 43.9% | 28 - 50 | 34 - 43 | 39 |
| 5 |
Lewes FC Women
Lewes FCW
|
8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 14 | 54.9% | 14.3% | 30.8% | 27 - 47 | 33 - 41 | 37 |
| 6 |
Exeter City Women
Exeter City WFC
|
8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 42.5% | 14.6% | 42.9% | 21 - 41 | 27 - 35 | 31 |
| 7 |
AFC Wimbledon Women
AFC Wimbledon Women
|
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 36.6% | 14.4% | 49.0% | 19 - 41 | 25 - 34 | 30 |
| 8 |
Hashtag United Women
Hashtag United WFC
|
8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 43.8% | 14.4% | 41.8% | 17 - 37 | 23 - 32 | 27 |
| 9 |
Real Bedford Women
Real Bedford WFC
|
8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 18.1% | 11.6% | 70.3% | 11 - 27 | 15 - 21 | 18 |
| 10 |
Cheltenham Town Women
Cheltenham Town WFC
|
8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 24.8% | 13.4% | 61.8% | 9 - 27 | 13 - 21 | 17 |
| 11 |
Swindon Town Women
Swindon WFC
|
8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 25.2% | 13.0% | 61.9% | 8 - 26 | 12 - 20 | 16 |
| 12 |
Plymouth Argyle Women
Plymouth Argyle WFC
|
8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 14 | 32.5% | 14.9% | 52.7% | 6 - 26 | 12 - 20 | 16 |