This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.
Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.
FA Women's National League South West Division One
Final Points Projection
A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.
Final League Outcome Projection
A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.
| Club | Promotion | Play-offs | Midtable | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Swindon Town WomenSwindon WFC | 48.37% | 51.45% | 0.18% | |
 Moneyfields WomenMoneyfields WFC | 51.62% | 48.12% | 0.26% | |
 Bristol Rovers WomenBristol Rovers WFC | 0.01% | 0.41% | 99.58% | |
 Bridgwater United WomenBridgwater WFC | 0.02% | 99.98% | ||
 Abingdon United WomenAbingdon WFC | 99.86% | 0.14% | ||
 Maidenhead United WomenMaidenhead United WFC | 99.77% | 0.23% | ||
 Ascot United WomenAscot United WFC | 99.52% | 0.48% | ||
 Marine Academy Plymouth LadiesMarine Academy Plymouth | 94.83% | 5.17% | ||
 Keynsham Town LadiesKeynsham Town LFC | 95.01% | 4.99% | ||
 Bournemouth Sports WomenBournemouth Sports WFC | 85.63% | 14.37% | ||
 Worthing WomenWorthing WFC | 11.62% | 88.38% | ||
 Portishead Town LadiesPortishead Town LFC | 13.76% | 86.24% |
Final League Position Projection
A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| Swindon Town WomenSwindon WFC | 48.4 | 51.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Moneyfields WomenMoneyfields WFC | 51.6 | 48.1 | 0.3 | |||||||||
| Bristol Rovers WomenBristol Rovers WFC | 0.0 | 0.4 | 76.4 | 20.2 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |||||
| Bridgwater United WomenBridgwater WFC | 0.0 | 21.2 | 67.4 | 9.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |||||
| Abingdon United WomenAbingdon WFC | 1.4 | 7.6 | 35.8 | 25.4 | 15.5 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Maidenhead United WomenMaidenhead United WFC | 0.5 | 3.3 | 28.4 | 28.3 | 19.0 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | ||
| Ascot United WomenAscot United WFC | 0.0 | 0.8 | 13.7 | 22.3 | 25.4 | 18.6 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | ||
| Marine Academy Plymouth LadiesMarine Academy Plymouth | 0.1 | 0.6 | 7.6 | 13.3 | 18.0 | 21.3 | 19.1 | 14.8 | 4.2 | 1.0 | ||
| Keynsham Town LadiesKeynsham Town LFC | 0.0 | 1.6 | 6.6 | 15.1 | 23.5 | 29.2 | 19.0 | 4.4 | 0.6 | |||
| Bournemouth Sports WomenBournemouth Sports WFC | 0.0 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 6.8 | 14.5 | 22.9 | 38.8 | 12.0 | 2.4 | |||
| Worthing WomenWorthing WFC | 0.1 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 7.9 | 38.3 | 50.0 | ||||||
| Portishead Town LadiesPortishead Town LFC | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 9.5 | 40.3 | 45.9 |
Final League Table Projection
A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores. The projected points range shows the likely range of points for each team – for example, Swindon Town Women have a 90% chance of finishing between 51 and 63 points, a 50% chance of finishing between 55 and 60 points (this is the interquartile range), with their median expected points being 57.
| Pos. | Team | Actual | Projected | Projected Points Range | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P | W | D | L | Pts | To Play | Win % | Draw % | Loss % | 90% range | 50% range | Exp. Pts | ||
| 1 |
Swindon Town Women
Swindon WFC
|
15 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 42 | 7 | 66.4% | 11.7% | 21.8% | 51 - 63 | 55 - 60 | 57 |
| 2 |
Moneyfields Women
Moneyfields WFC
|
16 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 43 | 6 | 70.1% | 12.3% | 17.6% | 51 - 61 | 55 - 59 | 56 |
| 3 |
Bristol Rovers Women
Bristol Rovers WFC
|
15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 7 | 56.8% | 13.8% | 29.4% | 36 - 47 | 39 - 45 | 42 |
| 4 |
Bridgwater United Women
Bridgwater WFC
|
16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 6 | 54.1% | 13.6% | 32.3% | 33 - 44 | 36 - 41 | 38 |
| 5 |
Abingdon United Women
Abingdon WFC
|
13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 9 | 33.5% | 14.3% | 52.2% | 23 - 38 | 27 - 33 | 30 |
| 6 |
Maidenhead United Women
Maidenhead United WFC
|
15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 7 | 41.7% | 15.2% | 43.1% | 22 - 35 | 26 - 32 | 29 |
| 7 |
Ascot United Women
Ascot United WFC
|
16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 6 | 35.4% | 15.7% | 48.9% | 21 - 32 | 23 - 29 | 26 |
| 8 |
Marine Academy Plymouth Ladies
Marine Academy Plymouth
|
13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 9 | 33.4% | 13.9% | 52.7% | 18 - 32 | 21 - 27 | 24 |
| 9 |
Keynsham Town Ladies
Keynsham Town LFC
|
16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 6 | 35.1% | 13.8% | 51.1% | 18 - 29 | 21 - 25 | 23 |
| 10 |
Bournemouth Sports Women
Bournemouth Sports WFC
|
17 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 16 | 5 | 30.0% | 15.1% | 54.9% | 16 - 26 | 19 - 23 | 21 |
| 11 |
Worthing Women
Worthing WFC
|
16 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 39.1% | 14.5% | 46.5% | 9 - 21 | 13 - 17 | 15 |
| 12 |
Portishead Town Ladies
Portishead Town LFC
|
16 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 22.6% | 13.0% | 64.4% | 10 - 20 | 13 - 17 | 14 |