This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.
Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.
FA Women's National League Southern Division
Final Points Projection
A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.
Final League Outcome Projection
A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.
| Club | Midtable |
|---|---|
 Oxford United WomenOxford United WFC | 100.00% |
 AFC Bournemouth WomenBournemouth WFC | 100.00% |
 Portsmouth FC WomenPortsmouth FCW | 100.00% |
 Lewes FC WomenLewes FCW | 100.00% |
 Plymouth Argyle WomenPlymouth Argyle WFC | 100.00% |
 Hashtag United WomenHashtag United WFC | 100.00% |
 Exeter City WomenExeter City WFC | 100.00% |
 Fulham FC WomenFulham FCW | 100.00% |
 Swindon Town WomenSwindon WFC | 100.00% |
 AFC Wimbledon WomenAFC Wimbledon Women | 100.00% |
 Real Bedford WomenReal Bedford WFC | 100.00% |
 Cheltenham Town WomenCheltenham Town WFC | 100.00% |
Final League Position Projection
A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| Oxford United WomenOxford United WFC | 36.2 | 23.4 | 15.5 | 10.9 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
| AFC Bournemouth WomenBournemouth WFC | 24.7 | 22.1 | 18.5 | 13.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Portsmouth FC WomenPortsmouth FCW | 22.1 | 22.4 | 18.8 | 14.3 | 10.3 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Lewes FC WomenLewes FCW | 7.3 | 12.0 | 15.1 | 16.5 | 15.9 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Plymouth Argyle WomenPlymouth Argyle WFC | 6.0 | 10.3 | 14.3 | 15.7 | 15.1 | 13.9 | 10.0 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| Hashtag United WomenHashtag United WFC | 2.2 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 11.0 | 14.5 | 15.8 | 14.8 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| Exeter City WomenExeter City WFC | 1.0 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 11.4 | 14.0 | 15.1 | 14.8 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 2.6 |
| Fulham FC WomenFulham FCW | 0.2 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 9.9 | 13.6 | 16.2 | 16.3 | 14.5 | 9.5 | 5.5 |
| Swindon Town WomenSwindon WFC | 0.3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 9.4 | 13.5 | 16.2 | 17.0 | 14.5 | 9.9 | 6.0 |
| AFC Wimbledon WomenAFC Wimbledon Women | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 12.0 | 16.2 | 19.3 | 18.1 | 15.7 |
| Real Bedford WomenReal Bedford WFC | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 11.1 | 18.3 | 28.5 | 28.4 | |
| Cheltenham Town WomenCheltenham Town WFC | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 9.6 | 14.8 | 24.5 | 39.9 |
Final League Table Projection
A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores. The projected points range shows the likely range of points for each team – for example, Oxford United Women have a 90% chance of finishing between 33 and 58 points, a 50% chance of finishing between 42 and 52 points (this is the interquartile range), with their median expected points being 47.
| Pos. | Team | Actual | Projected | Projected Points Range | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P | W | D | L | Pts | To Play | Win % | Draw % | Loss % | 90% range | 50% range | Exp. Pts | ||
| 1 |
Oxford United Women
Oxford United WFC
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 65.0% | 12.6% | 22.4% | 33 - 58 | 42 - 52 | 47 |
| 2 |
AFC Bournemouth Women
Bournemouth WFC
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 61.2% | 13.2% | 25.6% | 31 - 57 | 39 - 50 | 45 |
| 3 |
Portsmouth FC Women
Portsmouth FCW
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 65.0% | 12.7% | 22.2% | 30 - 55 | 39 - 49 | 44 |
| 4 |
Lewes FC Women
Lewes FCW
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 54.1% | 14.2% | 31.7% | 24 - 51 | 33 - 44 | 38 |
| 5 |
Plymouth Argyle Women
Plymouth Argyle WFC
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 53.9% | 14.1% | 32.0% | 23 - 50 | 31 - 43 | 37 |
| 6 |
Hashtag United Women
Hashtag United WFC
|
1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 45.3% | 14.3% | 40.5% | 19 - 46 | 27 - 38 | 33 |
| 7 |
Exeter City Women
Exeter City WFC
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 42.4% | 14.7% | 42.9% | 16 - 44 | 24 - 36 | 30 |
| 8 |
Fulham FC Women
Fulham FCW
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 32.1% | 13.9% | 54.0% | 14 - 40 | 20 - 31 | 26 |
| 9 |
Swindon Town Women
Swindon WFC
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 31.6% | 13.7% | 54.7% | 13 - 40 | 20 - 31 | 25 |
| 10 |
AFC Wimbledon Women
AFC Wimbledon Women
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 28.9% | 13.8% | 57.3% | 9 - 35 | 16 - 26 | 21 |
| 11 |
Real Bedford Women
Real Bedford WFC
|
1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 19.0% | 11.6% | 69.4% | 8 - 29 | 13 - 21 | 17 |
| 12 |
Cheltenham Town Women
Cheltenham Town WFC
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 20.8% | 12.5% | 66.7% | 5 - 28 | 11 - 20 | 15 |