Stat Attack

ELO League Table Projection

This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL Sky Bet League Two

Final Points Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.

Final League Outcome Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club PromotionPlay-offsMidtableRelegation
Doncaster RoversDoncaster Rovers100.00%
Port ValePort Vale100.00%
Bradford CityBradford66.00% 34.00%
WalsallWalsall26.50% 73.50%
Notts CountyNotts County7.50% 92.50%
AFC WimbledonWimbledon 83.67% 16.33%
Grimsby TownGrimsby Town 41.09% 58.91%
Salford CitySalford 44.76% 55.24%
ChesterfieldChesterfield 22.98% 77.02%
Colchester UnitedColchester United 7.50% 92.50%
BromleyBromley 100.00%
Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra 100.00%
Swindon TownSwindon 100.00%
Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town 100.00%
Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town 100.00%
BarrowBarrow 100.00%
GillinghamGillingham 100.00%
Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons 100.00%
Accrington StanleyAccrington 100.00%
Harrogate TownHarrogate Town 100.00%
Newport CountyNewport County 100.00%
Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers 100.00%
Carlisle UnitedCarlisle United 100.00%
MorecambeMorecambe 100.00%

Final League Position Projection

A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club 123456789101112131415161718192021222324
Club 123456789101112131415161718192021222324
Doncaster RoversDoncaster Rovers73.0 27.1
Port ValePort Vale27.1 73.0
Bradford CityBradford 66.0 26.9 7.1
WalsallWalsall 26.5 53.7 19.8
Notts CountyNotts County 7.5 19.4 47.8 25.3
AFC WimbledonWimbledon 25.3 38.5 19.9 13.9 2.4
Grimsby TownGrimsby Town 25.4 15.7 21.1 27.5 10.3
Salford CitySalford 10.8 33.9 27.4 22.1 5.8
ChesterfieldChesterfield 23.0 21.7 37.0 18.3
Colchester UnitedColchester United 7.5 15.8 11.0 57.1 8.5
BromleyBromley 8.5 43.8 29.5 15.5 2.6 0.0
Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra 31.4 32.6 21.5 11.6 2.9
Swindon TownSwindon 11.6 17.9 32.8 29.4 8.1 0.1
Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town 0.1 6.8 17.9 18.6 37.9 18.7
Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town 4.5 13.2 12.1 22.5 34.2 13.5
BarrowBarrow 0.2 15.4 16.8 67.5 0.1
GillinghamGillingham 0.1 99.9
Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons 61.1 24.8 12.2 1.9
Accrington StanleyAccrington 23.7 33.2 25.4 17.7
Harrogate TownHarrogate Town 10.9 21.0 27.7 40.5
Newport CountyNewport County 4.4 17.3 20.0 26.8 31.6
Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers 3.8 14.6 13.1 68.5
Carlisle UnitedCarlisle United 100.0
MorecambeMorecambe 100.0

Final League Table Projection

A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores.

Pos. Team Actual Projected
P W D L Pts To Play Win % Draw % Loss % Pts
1 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 45 23 12 10 81 1 38.4% 26.5% 35.1% 82.4
2 Port Vale Port Vale 45 22 14 9 80 1 41.4% 27.6% 31.0% 81.5
3 Bradford City Bradford 45 21 12 12 75 1 39.9% 27.2% 33.0% 76.5
4 Walsall Walsall 45 20 14 11 74 1 35.1% 26.5% 38.4% 75.3
5 Notts County Notts County 45 20 12 13 72 1 35.1% 26.5% 38.4% 73.3
6 AFC Wimbledon Wimbledon 45 19 13 13 70 1 38.5% 25.2% 36.3% 71.4
7 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 45 20 8 17 68 1 36.3% 25.2% 38.5% 69.3
8 Salford City Salford 45 18 14 13 68 1 28.6% 26.8% 44.5% 69.1
9 Chesterfield Chesterfield 45 18 13 14 67 1 31.9% 28.4% 39.7% 68.2
10 Colchester United Colchester United 45 16 18 11 66 1 36.6% 26.5% 36.9% 67.4
11 Bromley Bromley 45 16 15 14 63 1 34.5% 26.4% 39.1% 64.3
12 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 45 15 17 13 62 1 38.4% 26.5% 35.1% 63.4
13 Swindon Town Swindon 45 15 16 14 61 1 28.8% 28.4% 42.8% 62.1
14 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 45 16 12 17 60 1 39.1% 26.4% 34.5% 61.4
15 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 45 15 15 15 60 1 33.0% 27.2% 39.9% 61.3
16 Barrow Barrow 45 15 13 17 58 1 36.9% 26.5% 36.6% 59.4
17 Gillingham Gillingham 45 13 16 16 55 1 31.0% 27.6% 41.4% 56.2
18 Milton Keynes Dons MK Dons 45 14 9 22 51 1 42.8% 28.4% 28.8% 52.6
19 Accrington Stanley Accrington 45 12 14 19 50 1 39.7% 28.4% 31.9% 51.5
20 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 45 13 11 21 50 1 31.8% 28.8% 39.4% 51.2
21 Newport County Newport County 45 13 10 22 49 1 40.4% 28.1% 31.6% 50.5
22 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers 45 11 15 19 48 1 31.6% 28.1% 40.4% 49.2
23 Carlisle United Carlisle United 45 10 11 24 41 1 44.5% 26.8% 28.6% 42.6
24 Morecambe Morecambe 45 10 6 29 36 1 39.4% 28.8% 31.8% 37.5