This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.
Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.
EFL Sky Bet League Two
Final Points Projection
A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.
Final League Outcome Projection
A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.
| Club | Promotion | Play-offs | Midtable | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 WalsallWalsall | 38.23% | 28.05% | 33.37% | 0.35% |
 Swindon TownSwindon | 31.67% | 27.89% | 39.99% | 0.45% |
 GillinghamGillingham | 25.93% | 27.09% | 46.38% | 0.60% |
 Salford CitySalford | 24.57% | 26.71% | 47.93% | 0.79% |
 BarnetBarnet | 21.94% | 24.91% | 51.98% | 1.17% |
 Cambridge UnitedCambridge United | 22.14% | 24.87% | 51.82% | 1.17% |
 ChesterfieldChesterfield | 19.91% | 25.17% | 53.78% | 1.14% |
 BromleyBromley | 19.35% | 24.68% | 54.73% | 1.24% |
 Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town | 14.90% | 22.01% | 60.96% | 2.13% |
 Grimsby TownGrimsby Town | 12.08% | 20.00% | 65.53% | 2.39% |
 Notts CountyNotts County | 12.72% | 20.26% | 64.58% | 2.44% |
 Bristol RoversBristol Rovers | 9.98% | 18.17% | 68.59% | 3.26% |
 Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra | 10.49% | 18.00% | 67.98% | 3.53% |
 Crawley TownCrawley Town | 8.24% | 16.47% | 70.65% | 4.64% |
 Colchester UnitedColchester United | 5.18% | 12.51% | 75.63% | 6.68% |
 Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers | 5.14% | 11.64% | 75.35% | 7.87% |
 Oldham AthleticOldham Athletic | 4.38% | 11.22% | 76.22% | 8.18% |
 Harrogate TownHarrogate Town | 3.95% | 10.28% | 76.96% | 8.81% |
 BarrowBarrow | 3.10% | 8.44% | 75.93% | 12.53% |
 Accrington StanleyAccrington | 2.07% | 6.29% | 75.82% | 15.82% |
 Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons | 1.73% | 6.38% | 77.26% | 14.63% |
 Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury Town | 1.34% | 5.32% | 72.47% | 20.87% |
 Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town | 0.79% | 2.78% | 66.94% | 29.49% |
 Newport CountyNewport County | 0.17% | 0.86% | 49.15% | 49.82% |
Final League Position Projection
A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| WalsallWalsall | 16.7 | 11.7 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Swindon TownSwindon | 12.3 | 10.4 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| GillinghamGillingham | 9.3 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Salford CitySalford | 9.3 | 7.8 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| BarnetBarnet | 7.1 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Cambridge UnitedCambridge United | 7.4 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| ChesterfieldChesterfield | 6.8 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| BromleyBromley | 6.0 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town | 4.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Grimsby TownGrimsby Town | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| Notts CountyNotts County | 3.5 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Bristol RoversBristol Rovers | 2.7 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra | 2.6 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Crawley TownCrawley Town | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.8 |
| Colchester UnitedColchester United | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.9 |
| Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 3.4 |
| Oldham AthleticOldham Athletic | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 3.3 |
| Harrogate TownHarrogate Town | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 3.5 |
| BarrowBarrow | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 5.5 |
| Accrington StanleyAccrington | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 7.4 |
| Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 6.2 |
| Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury Town | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 10.3 | 10.6 |
| Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 10.9 | 13.7 | 15.8 |
| Newport CountyNewport County | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 17.3 | 32.5 |
Final League Table Projection
A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores. The projected points range shows the likely range of points for each team – for example, Walsall have a 90% chance of finishing between 57 and 94 points, a 50% chance of finishing between 68 and 84 points (this is the interquartile range), with their median expected points being 76.
| Pos. | Team | Actual | Projected | Projected Points Range | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P | W | D | L | Pts | To Play | Win % | Draw % | Loss % | 90% range | 50% range | Exp. Pts | ||
| 1 |
Walsall
Walsall
|
9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 37 | 42.3% | 26.3% | 31.5% | 57 - 94 | 68 - 84 | 76 |
| 2 |
Swindon Town
Swindon
|
9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 37 | 41.2% | 26.5% | 32.3% | 55 - 92 | 66 - 81 | 73 |
| 3 |
Gillingham
Gillingham
|
9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 37 | 36.8% | 26.7% | 36.5% | 54 - 90 | 64 - 79 | 72 |
| 4 |
Salford City
Salford
|
9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 37 | 38.2% | 26.8% | 35.0% | 53 - 90 | 64 - 79 | 71 |
| 5 |
Barnet
Barnet
|
9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 37 | 42.5% | 26.1% | 31.3% | 51 - 88 | 62 - 78 | 70 |
| 6 |
Cambridge United
Cambridge United
|
9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 37 | 41.5% | 26.6% | 32.0% | 51 - 88 | 62 - 78 | 70 |
| 7 |
Chesterfield
Chesterfield
|
9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 37 | 40.1% | 26.6% | 33.4% | 51 - 88 | 62 - 77 | 69 |
| 8 |
Bromley
Bromley
|
9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 37 | 40.6% | 26.5% | 32.9% | 50 - 87 | 61 - 77 | 69 |
| 9 |
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 37 | 40.5% | 26.7% | 32.8% | 48 - 86 | 59 - 75 | 67 |
| 10 |
Grimsby Town
Grimsby Town
|
9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 37 | 36.7% | 26.9% | 36.4% | 48 - 85 | 58 - 73 | 66 |
| 11 |
Notts County
Notts County
|
9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 37 | 37.6% | 26.7% | 35.8% | 47 - 84 | 58 - 73 | 65 |
| 12 |
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
|
9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 37 | 36.5% | 26.8% | 36.7% | 46 - 83 | 57 - 72 | 64 |
| 13 |
Crewe Alexandra
Crewe Alexandra
|
9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 37 | 37.2% | 26.7% | 36.1% | 46 - 83 | 56 - 72 | 64 |
| 14 |
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
|
9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 37 | 40.6% | 26.6% | 32.8% | 44 - 82 | 55 - 71 | 63 |
| 15 |
Colchester United
Colchester United
|
9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 37 | 37.9% | 26.8% | 35.3% | 42 - 78 | 52 - 68 | 60 |
| 16 |
Tranmere Rovers
Tranmere Rovers
|
8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 38 | 35.3% | 26.8% | 37.9% | 41 - 79 | 51 - 67 | 59 |
| 17 |
Oldham Athletic
Oldham Athletic
|
9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 37 | 32.8% | 26.5% | 40.7% | 42 - 78 | 52 - 67 | 59 |
| 18 |
Harrogate Town
Harrogate Town
|
9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 37 | 34.1% | 26.6% | 39.3% | 41 - 77 | 51 - 66 | 58 |
| 19 |
Barrow
Barrow
|
9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 37 | 34.1% | 26.7% | 39.3% | 38 - 76 | 49 - 64 | 56 |
| 20 |
Accrington Stanley
Accrington
|
8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 38 | 31.4% | 26.3% | 42.3% | 37 - 74 | 47 - 62 | 55 |
| 21 |
Milton Keynes Dons
MK Dons
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 37 | 29.7% | 26.4% | 43.9% | 37 - 73 | 47 - 62 | 54 |
| 22 |
Shrewsbury Town
Shrewsbury Town
|
9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 37 | 34.3% | 26.8% | 39.0% | 35 - 72 | 45 - 60 | 53 |
| 23 |
Cheltenham Town
Cheltenham Town
|
9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 37 | 32.7% | 26.6% | 40.7% | 33 - 69 | 42 - 58 | 50 |
| 24 |
Newport County
Newport County
|
9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 37 | 26.9% | 25.8% | 47.3% | 28 - 62 | 37 - 51 | 44 |