This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL Sky Bet League Two

Final Points Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.

Final League Outcome Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club	Promotion	Play-offs	Midtable	Relegation
BromleyBromley	94.74%	5.26%
Cambridge UnitedCambridge United	65.68%	33.64%	0.68%
Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons	71.71%	28.11%	0.18%
Notts CountyNotts County	46.44%	52.67%	0.89%
Salford CitySalford	9.59%	75.88%	14.53%
Swindon TownSwindon	9.42%	76.56%	14.02%
Grimsby TownGrimsby Town	1.80%	46.35%	51.85%
ChesterfieldChesterfield	0.25%	31.49%	68.26%
Oldham AthleticOldham Athletic	0.33%	27.29%	72.38%
Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra	0.04%	11.71%	88.25%
WalsallWalsall		6.58%	93.42%
BarnetBarnet		4.10%	95.90%
Colchester UnitedColchester United		0.33%	99.67%
Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town		0.03%	99.97%
Accrington StanleyAccrington			100.00%
Bristol RoversBristol Rovers			100.00%
GillinghamGillingham			100.00%
Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town			99.99%	0.01%
Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury Town			99.84%	0.16%
Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers			89.05%	10.95%
Crawley TownCrawley Town			83.62%	16.38%
Newport CountyNewport County			69.29%	30.71%
BarrowBarrow			43.91%	56.09%
Harrogate TownHarrogate Town			14.30%	85.70%

Final League Position Projection

A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Club	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
BromleyBromley	64.0	20.7	10.1	4.2	0.8	0.2	0.0
Cambridge UnitedCambridge United	15.4	26.1	24.2	18.3	9.5	4.4	1.4	0.5	0.1	0.0
Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons	14.5	29.6	27.6	17.1	7.3	2.8	0.9	0.2	0.0
Notts CountyNotts County	5.2	18.1	23.2	27.2	14.8	7.8	2.8	0.8	0.1
Salford CitySalford	0.4	2.6	6.6	12.5	21.9	25.7	15.7	8.1	3.9	1.8	0.6	0.1
Swindon TownSwindon	0.5	2.5	6.5	14.0	25.9	22.6	14.1	7.5	4.1	1.7	0.6	0.1	0.0
Grimsby TownGrimsby Town	0.0	0.4	1.4	3.8	9.3	14.0	19.3	17.7	13.1	9.3	6.5	3.9	1.1	0.2
ChesterfieldChesterfield		0.0	0.2	1.4	4.9	8.9	16.4	17.7	17.0	13.8	9.7	6.9	2.5	0.7
Oldham AthleticOldham Athletic		0.0	0.3	1.1	3.7	8.0	14.5	19.2	17.7	14.1	10.2	6.9	3.6	0.7	0.0
Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra			0.0	0.3	1.2	3.2	7.0	11.2	15.1	17.4	18.9	16.6	7.5	1.4	0.0
WalsallWalsall				0.1	0.5	1.6	4.4	9.3	14.0	19.1	20.3	19.2	9.0	2.4	0.0	0.0
BarnetBarnet				0.0	0.2	0.8	3.1	6.6	11.8	16.7	20.6	21.9	13.1	5.0	0.1
Colchester UnitedColchester United						0.0	0.3	1.1	2.5	4.3	8.1	15.4	34.6	27.4	5.3	0.9	0.2
Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town							0.0	0.2	0.6	1.8	4.4	8.8	25.5	48.0	8.8	1.8	0.3
Accrington StanleyAccrington										0.0	0.0	0.2	2.2	8.5	39.7	26.6	15.4	6.4	0.9	0.0
Bristol RoversBristol Rovers													0.4	2.9	22.0	31.3	24.8	14.8	3.4	0.5	0.0
GillinghamGillingham													0.1	1.2	12.4	19.1	28.1	26.1	11.7	1.2	0.1
Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town											0.0	0.0	0.2	1.6	11.2	18.1	23.5	29.5	12.3	2.8	0.6	0.1	0.0
Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury Town														0.0	0.5	2.0	6.6	18.2	46.6	17.2	7.1	1.7	0.2
Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers															0.0	0.2	0.7	2.8	11.2	26.6	27.2	20.4	9.5	1.5
Crawley TownCrawley Town																0.0	0.3	1.5	8.3	25.1	25.0	23.3	12.9	3.5
Newport CountyNewport County																	0.1	0.7	4.1	17.8	22.3	24.2	20.1	10.6
BarrowBarrow																	0.0	0.1	1.4	7.3	13.5	21.7	35.3	20.8
Harrogate TownHarrogate Town																		0.0	0.1	1.4	4.1	8.6	22.0	63.7

Final League Table Projection

A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores. The projected points range shows the likely range of points for each team – for example, Bromley have a 90% chance of finishing between 83 and 94 points, a 50% chance of finishing between 86 and 91 points (this is the interquartile range), with their median expected points being 89.

Pos.	Team	Actual					Projected				Projected Points Range
		P	W	D	L	Pts	To Play	Win %	Draw %	Loss %	90% range	50% range	Exp. Pts
1	Bromley Bromley	40	22	13	5	79	6	44.8%	26.0%	29.2%	83 - 94	86 - 91	89
2	Cambridge United Cambridge United	39	20	12	7	72	7	48.6%	25.3%	26.1%	78 - 90	82 - 86	84
3	Milton Keynes Dons MK Dons	40	21	11	8	74	6	47.1%	25.1%	27.8%	78 - 89	82 - 86	84
4	Notts County Notts County	40	22	7	11	73	6	44.3%	25.6%	30.1%	77 - 88	80 - 85	83
5	Salford City Salford	40	22	4	14	70	6	39.9%	26.5%	33.6%	73 - 84	76 - 81	79
6	Swindon Town Swindon	40	21	7	12	70	6	39.4%	26.8%	33.8%	73 - 84	76 - 81	79
7	Grimsby Town Grimsby Town	38	17	11	10	62	8	43.6%	25.8%	30.7%	68 - 81	72 - 77	75
8	Chesterfield Chesterfield	39	16	14	9	62	7	45.0%	26.2%	28.8%	67 - 79	71 - 76	73
9	Oldham Athletic Oldham Athletic	39	16	13	10	61	7	46.0%	26.2%	27.8%	66 - 78	70 - 75	72
10	Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra	40	18	9	13	63	6	33.7%	26.7%	39.6%	65 - 76	68 - 73	70
11	Walsall Walsall	40	17	10	13	61	6	42.7%	25.9%	31.4%	65 - 76	68 - 72	70
12	Barnet Barnet	40	16	12	12	60	6	43.2%	25.9%	30.9%	64 - 75	67 - 72	69
13	Colchester United Colchester United	39	14	12	13	54	7	41.3%	26.7%	32.0%	58 - 71	62 - 67	64
14	Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town	40	14	13	13	55	6	36.3%	27.7%	36.0%	58 - 69	61 - 66	63
15	Accrington Stanley Accrington	39	13	9	17	48	7	30.2%	26.3%	43.5%	51 - 62	54 - 58	56
16	Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers	40	14	4	22	46	6	39.1%	26.7%	34.2%	49 - 60	52 - 57	55
17	Gillingham Gillingham	39	11	12	16	45	7	27.6%	25.8%	46.6%	47 - 58	50 - 55	52
18	Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town	38	11	9	18	42	8	35.1%	26.4%	38.4%	46 - 59	50 - 55	52
19	Shrewsbury Town Shrewsbury Town	40	11	8	21	41	6	29.7%	25.8%	44.5%	43 - 53	46 - 50	48
20	Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers	39	9	9	21	36	7	22.6%	24.7%	52.7%	37 - 48	40 - 45	42
21	Crawley Town Crawley Town	40	7	13	20	34	6	32.7%	27.0%	40.3%	36 - 47	39 - 44	41
22	Newport County Newport County	40	9	7	24	34	6	28.6%	25.9%	45.5%	36 - 46	38 - 43	41
23	Barrow Barrow	39	8	8	23	32	7	23.2%	23.9%	53.0%	33 - 44	36 - 41	38
24	Harrogate Town Harrogate Town	40	7	9	24	30	6	23.8%	25.0%	51.2%	31 - 41	34 - 38	36