Stat Attack

ELO League Table Projection

This page shows a projection of the league table based on current ELO scores - by calculating the percentage likelihood of each remaining match, an "expected points" score is assigned to each club's matches, and from that, their final expected points total for the season is estimated. Standard deviation from this expected points total is also calculated and displayed, to give a likely range of points values for each team.

Inspired by ClubELO.com, the ELO rating system is a method of calculating and comparing the relative strengths of teams in competition. For every match played, the ELO scores of the two teams are considered, and adjusted for other factors (such as home advantage), to calculate the likelihood of the match result. When the actual result of the game is known, the ELO score is adjusted accordingly, comparing the expected outcome of the game with the actual outcome - so a victory over Manchester United will be worth more points than one over Supermarine. The resulting ELO score can be used to compare the strengths of teams over time, and to project future results based on the current form of all teams.

EFL Sky Bet League Two

Final Points Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the number of points that each team will accumulate, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season - the initial bar shows the current points, then the lighter colours show the potential points range where each team may finish on - the darker the shade, the higher the likelihood of the team finishing on that number of points.

Final League Outcome Projection

A projection of the likelihood of the season's outcome for each team, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club PromotionPlay-offsMidtableRelegation
BromleyBromley83.68% 14.80% 1.52%
Cambridge UnitedCambridge United63.48% 30.06% 6.46%
Notts CountyNotts County40.33% 44.03% 15.64%
Swindon TownSwindon36.19% 45.70% 18.11%
Salford CitySalford26.27% 43.68% 30.05%
WalsallWalsall14.36% 40.57% 45.07%
Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons13.73% 44.17% 42.10%
ChesterfieldChesterfield5.88% 32.74% 61.38%
BarnetBarnet4.98% 26.39% 68.63%
Grimsby TownGrimsby Town4.67% 23.25% 72.08%
Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra3.19% 22.82% 73.99%
Colchester UnitedColchester United2.74% 18.78% 78.48%
GillinghamGillingham0.18% 5.17% 94.65%
Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town0.13% 3.51% 96.29% 0.07%
Accrington StanleyAccrington0.18% 3.22% 96.60%
Oldham AthleticOldham Athletic0.01% 0.85% 98.77% 0.37%
Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers 0.24% 98.98% 0.78%
Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town 0.01% 93.92% 6.07%
BarrowBarrow 0.01% 88.77% 11.22%
Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury Town 88.04% 11.96%
Bristol RoversBristol Rovers 85.23% 14.77%
Crawley TownCrawley Town 86.47% 13.53%
Harrogate TownHarrogate Town 39.51% 60.49%
Newport CountyNewport County 19.26% 80.74%

Final League Position Projection

A projection of the likelihood of where each team will finish in the table, based on ELO scores and 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season.

Club 123456789101112131415161718192021222324
Club 123456789101112131415161718192021222324
BromleyBromley49.6 22.0 12.1 6.9 4.3 2.2 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cambridge UnitedCambridge United23.4 23.3 16.8 11.8 8.3 6.0 4.0 2.7 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Notts CountyNotts County8.9 15.5 15.9 14.9 12.1 9.8 7.3 5.8 3.9 2.5 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
Swindon TownSwindon6.6 13.8 15.8 15.2 12.5 10.1 8.0 5.7 4.7 3.2 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Salford CitySalford5.5 9.3 11.5 11.9 11.7 10.8 9.3 7.6 7.0 5.5 3.9 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
WalsallWalsall2.0 5.2 7.3 9.4 10.3 10.8 10.1 10.0 8.7 7.8 6.4 5.2 3.4 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Milton Keynes DonsMK Dons1.8 4.6 7.3 9.1 11.0 12.3 11.8 10.8 9.4 7.9 5.8 3.8 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
ChesterfieldChesterfield0.6 1.7 3.6 5.4 7.7 9.3 10.3 10.7 10.4 10.5 9.2 7.2 5.9 3.5 2.3 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
BarnetBarnet0.5 1.3 3.2 4.4 5.8 7.3 8.8 10.4 11.1 10.9 10.0 8.8 6.9 5.5 2.8 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.1
Grimsby TownGrimsby Town0.5 1.7 2.5 3.9 5.0 6.3 8.0 9.0 10.0 10.6 11.1 9.9 8.2 6.2 3.9 2.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Crewe AlexandraCrewe Alexandra0.3 0.9 2.0 3.4 5.0 6.4 8.0 9.8 10.6 11.5 11.4 10.4 8.6 5.9 3.3 1.8 0.5 0.2 0.0
Colchester UnitedColchester United0.3 0.7 1.7 2.7 4.0 5.3 6.8 7.9 9.3 9.8 11.4 11.5 9.8 8.0 5.5 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
GillinghamGillingham0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.4 2.4 3.0 4.0 5.9 7.5 9.9 12.9 14.6 13.6 10.1 6.5 3.4 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
Fleetwood TownFleetwood Town 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.8 2.5 4.0 5.1 6.9 9.7 12.8 14.2 13.5 11.2 7.5 4.5 2.2 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Accrington StanleyAccrington0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.4 3.4 4.7 6.6 8.9 11.6 14.1 15.1 12.6 8.6 4.8 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.1
Oldham AthleticOldham Athletic 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.8 3.1 4.9 6.8 9.8 13.2 16.3 14.8 10.6 7.2 4.7 2.4 1.3 0.3 0.1
Tranmere RoversTranmere Rovers 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.9 4.6 7.4 11.3 14.8 17.0 14.4 10.4 6.8 4.2 2.1 0.7 0.1
Cheltenham TownCheltenham Town 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.4 2.2 4.4 7.9 11.4 15.1 14.8 14.2 12.7 8.7 4.5 1.6
BarrowBarrow 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.0 8.1 11.6 15.3 15.5 15.5 12.7 8.3 2.9
Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury Town 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.4 4.5 7.5 11.1 13.6 16.0 15.7 15.5 9.0 3.0
Bristol RoversBristol Rovers 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 4.0 7.3 10.3 13.0 14.6 16.0 16.3 11.3 3.5
Crawley TownCrawley Town 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.1 6.3 10.4 14.2 16.4 17.3 16.1 10.0 3.5
Harrogate TownHarrogate Town 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.6 5.9 10.0 17.1 32.4 28.1
Newport CountyNewport County 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.6 4.7 9.9 23.5 57.2

Final League Table Projection

A projection of the final league table, based on expected points calculated from ELO scores. The projected points range shows the likely range of points for each team – for example, Bromley have a 90% chance of finishing between 77 and 96 points, a 50% chance of finishing between 82 and 90 points (this is the interquartile range), with their median expected points being 86.

Pos. Team Actual Projected Projected Points Range
P W D L Pts To Play Win % Draw % Loss % 90% range 50% range Exp. Pts
1 Bromley Bromley 31 18 9 4 63 15 42.4% 26.6% 31.0% 77 - 96 82 - 90 86
2 Cambridge United Cambridge United 31 17 8 6 59 15 42.7% 26.5% 30.9% 73 - 92 78 - 86 82
3 Notts County Notts County 31 17 7 7 58 15 37.8% 26.9% 35.4% 69 - 89 75 - 83 79
4 Swindon Town Swindon 32 18 4 10 58 14 39.5% 26.5% 34.0% 69 - 87 74 - 82 78
5 Salford City Salford 29 16 4 9 52 17 39.4% 26.6% 33.9% 66 - 87 72 - 81 77
6 Walsall Walsall 30 14 7 9 49 16 42.9% 26.3% 30.8% 64 - 84 70 - 78 74
7 Milton Keynes Dons MK Dons 31 16 9 6 57 15 28.5% 25.9% 45.6% 65 - 83 70 - 77 74
8 Chesterfield Chesterfield 31 12 13 6 49 15 40.5% 26.7% 32.8% 62 - 81 67 - 75 71
9 Barnet Barnet 31 12 11 8 47 15 42.1% 26.4% 31.5% 60 - 80 66 - 74 70
10 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 30 13 9 8 48 16 35.5% 26.9% 37.5% 60 - 80 65 - 73 69
11 Crewe Alexandra Crewe Alexandra 32 14 8 10 50 14 36.8% 26.9% 36.3% 60 - 79 65 - 73 69
12 Colchester United Colchester United 30 12 9 9 45 16 38.1% 26.9% 35.0% 58 - 78 63 - 72 68
13 Gillingham Gillingham 30 10 11 9 41 16 35.8% 26.7% 37.5% 53 - 72 58 - 66 62
14 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 30 10 8 12 38 16 40.4% 26.6% 33.0% 52 - 71 57 - 66 62
15 Accrington Stanley Accrington 30 12 7 11 43 16 29.6% 26.8% 43.6% 52 - 72 57 - 65 61
16 Oldham Athletic Oldham Athletic 29 8 12 9 36 17 32.7% 26.8% 40.5% 47 - 68 53 - 61 57
17 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers 31 9 8 14 35 15 36.0% 26.8% 37.2% 46 - 65 51 - 59 55
18 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 30 9 4 17 31 16 32.4% 26.5% 41.1% 41 - 61 47 - 55 51
19 Barrow Barrow 30 7 6 17 27 16 35.2% 26.9% 37.9% 38 - 58 44 - 52 48
20 Shrewsbury Town Shrewsbury Town 31 7 8 16 29 15 33.6% 26.8% 39.6% 39 - 58 44 - 52 48
21 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 31 8 3 20 27 15 36.7% 27.0% 36.3% 38 - 57 43 - 52 47
22 Crawley Town Crawley Town 32 6 8 18 26 14 41.3% 26.9% 31.8% 38 - 56 43 - 51 47
23 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 32 5 7 20 22 14 34.5% 26.9% 38.6% 31 - 50 36 - 44 40
24 Newport County Newport County 31 5 6 20 21 15 26.8% 25.6% 47.7% 28 - 46 33 - 41 37